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No, particularly since you are changing the terms of the bet from, "on staying beyond 2-years from today," to "with no pending arrangement to exit." Those are VERY different bets.
EU Brexit - UK
- Thread starter Robin Mitchell
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They are not different bets at all. One is a fact and no chance exists so no need to bet on it (UK will not leave until, as you said, 2-years after Article 50 is invoked). This would not be a bet, it would be a con or a cheat. The real bet requires the people making the bet to take some risk (also known as a bet). Are you in?
The present Conservative Govt have about 4 years to run before the next regulatory election.
The contenders to replace the present PM have stated that they will not call an early election.
This will give them sufficient delay time to exit the EU or kick the problem around until the exit option can be shown to be a bad idea, despite the Referendum vote calling for exit, I suspect the latter option, as the Govt is not legally bound to accept the 'exit' result.
Already the 'remain' team are saying on the media that the 'exit' voters are in some way less intellectual and come from a 'lower' class structure and their votes are somehow not representative of the 'higher' general population.
This IMHO is a very dangerous trend and will further divide the UK population.
E
BTW: I am a Conservative supporter, only mid right wing and I voted to exit.
The contenders to replace the present PM have stated that they will not call an early election.
This will give them sufficient delay time to exit the EU or kick the problem around until the exit option can be shown to be a bad idea, despite the Referendum vote calling for exit, I suspect the latter option, as the Govt is not legally bound to accept the 'exit' result.
Already the 'remain' team are saying on the media that the 'exit' voters are in some way less intellectual and come from a 'lower' class structure and their votes are somehow not representative of the 'higher' general population.
This IMHO is a very dangerous trend and will further divide the UK population.
E
BTW: I am a Conservative supporter, only mid right wing and I voted to exit.
My understanding is that it is up to the country that wants to leave the EU to trigger article 50 as and when it suits them to do so, the EU can not influence this.
Once triggered the country has two years to try to reach an agreement, if it fails the country leaves after two years with no agreement.
If at the end of the two years no agreement is reached the negotiation period can only be extended by unanimous agreement of all the remaining countries.
Once officially triggered there is no means to retract it so it is highly likely we may have to leave with no agreement in two years.
By far the biggest hurdle in the negotiations is the issue of free movement of people, it is not acceptable to the UK population to have people from relatively poor countries deciding to come and live in the UK simply because they want to.
The UK has one of the most generous state benefit systems in the EU and as such is a hugely attractive for masses of relatively poor people in some of the other countries.
The second biggest issue is the authority that the EU supreme court has over national legislation of member countries, the UK does not want to become a state ruled by a non elected Federal Europe.
Once triggered the country has two years to try to reach an agreement, if it fails the country leaves after two years with no agreement.
If at the end of the two years no agreement is reached the negotiation period can only be extended by unanimous agreement of all the remaining countries.
Once officially triggered there is no means to retract it so it is highly likely we may have to leave with no agreement in two years.
By far the biggest hurdle in the negotiations is the issue of free movement of people, it is not acceptable to the UK population to have people from relatively poor countries deciding to come and live in the UK simply because they want to.
The UK has one of the most generous state benefit systems in the EU and as such is a hugely attractive for masses of relatively poor people in some of the other countries.
The second biggest issue is the authority that the EU supreme court has over national legislation of member countries, the UK does not want to become a state ruled by a non elected Federal Europe.
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So what you are saying is the UK is not free to or cannot get the EU to grant different benefits to non citizens?
The UK is not free to impose any restrictions, EU citizens regardless of their motives for coming to the UK are not considered "non citizens" as you put it.
We have many examples of people coming form less developed EU countries simply to take advantage of our state support system, once here they have full access even though they never have, and never will, pay anything into the system.
The state of affairs is mirrored with people from outside the EU trying to get here by any means without any means of identification, who they are or where they are from, trying to claim asylum as they know the UK state will look after them.
We have criminal gangs of immigrants once here specifically exploiting our benefit system of millions of pounds.
On top of all this the number of murders, child abductions, rapes and general street crime has increased due to immigrants, some repeating crimes they committed in their own country be it EU or outside.
In some states in the US, you get lower tuitions for being an in-state resident, or an "undocumented immigrant". For a legal out-of-state resident / US citizen, you pay more.
So if you pay taxes and follow the law, you are a 2nd class citizen in your own country.
and you still have trouble understanding why people all over the globe are pissed? :0
Yes, but here the states decide that. It's their tax money. The difference in the UK is our federal equivalent can force the "states" to do that.
Sounds like the basic difference is taxation by the federal government. Here the majority of the welfare comes from the federal gov't based on population. This of course still has some problems because some states are poorer than others so pay less federal taxes. But it does tend to equalize benefits. We do provide emergency medical benefits to illegals but other than that they are pretty much on their own. People here scream about illegals but we don't have the problem you guys are going thru now.
What standard of measurement justifies that claim? Absolute "problem", relative "problem" (relative to the population, to the land area or relative to the number of pickles sold), or perceived "problem".
Well the EU had 1.3 million last year and we had about a net zero.
They have like 33 million non citizens while we have around 20 million I think.
Population 500 mil to 300 mil.
I didn't check land area or pickles, but I suspect we have more of both.
Perceived seems to be about the same.
We all will loose. North Ireland and Scotland want to stay in the EU and try to leave UK.
UK will kick all non British out. The EU in return will send all British working and living in EU home.(unemployed back in UK).
EU and British people can not transport goods back and forwards without an import licence or hop the border.( limitation to holiday makers).
Extra Tax charges on good to be imported from non EU countries. UK will get the same treatment as US/China/ Canada and the rest of the non EU world.
British pound 30%++ down.
Import to UK more expensive this looks good to buy from UK but EU import Tax will avoid competition with EU companies.
EU support on universities, rebuilding cities and calamities like flooding or bank- bankruptcy does not exist anymore.
EU financial centre located in London is looking to move to an other EU city.
This is just a small part of the Brexit effect no one can exact predict what happened in 5 to10 years.
De cap between poor and rich will grow fast.
And the guys whom initiate the Brexit run away and watch's the nation to burn down.
Anyway its UK's democratic choice.
It is a pitch black decision. UK nor EU will benefit.
Picbuster
UK will kick all non British out. The EU in return will send all British working and living in EU home.(unemployed back in UK).
EU and British people can not transport goods back and forwards without an import licence or hop the border.( limitation to holiday makers).
Extra Tax charges on good to be imported from non EU countries. UK will get the same treatment as US/China/ Canada and the rest of the non EU world.
British pound 30%++ down.
Import to UK more expensive this looks good to buy from UK but EU import Tax will avoid competition with EU companies.
EU support on universities, rebuilding cities and calamities like flooding or bank- bankruptcy does not exist anymore.
EU financial centre located in London is looking to move to an other EU city.
This is just a small part of the Brexit effect no one can exact predict what happened in 5 to10 years.
De cap between poor and rich will grow fast.
And the guys whom initiate the Brexit run away and watch's the nation to burn down.
Anyway its UK's democratic choice.
It is a pitch black decision. UK nor EU will benefit.
Picbuster
Look at how much the US, china, Canada are selling into the EU, it seems to be a good position to be in, on top of not having to deal with the EU overlords and their non sensical immigration policies.
It means what you think. It was just my attempt to get Ron to show that his data has merit. If his data could be referenced to some random bit of information (like pickle sales) than it does to his claim, I can demonstrate his data is questionable. I didn't exactly mean for him to do the analysis, it was just a hollow challenge.
OK, it makes sense.
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