IMO we should use the world's population as the upper limit. The claimed number might be off but it's incredibly high because of the stealth onset of illness allows for highly contagious young, active asymptomatic people to mingle for long periods of time before we see a upward trend in initial symptoms in those at risk.

Okay, let's use the world's population. The NIH estimates that approximately 9% of the world's population is infected with the flu each year. So, according to this report, we can expect about 2700% of the world's population to be infected with COVID-19.

The claim makes no sense.

 

Okay, let's use the world's population. The NIH estimates that approximately 9% of the world's population is infected with the flu each year. So, according to this report, we can expect about 2700% of the world's population to be infected with COVID-19.

The claim makes no sense.

I totally agree, explained that way, it's truly nonsensical.

 

I don't think 300 times more infectious means 300 times more infections, I think for that to be true the infected would have to be in contact with 300 times more people.

Something like that, those numbers are just for reference.

 

Seems some are locked up in a numerology discourse. Let us not forget the human element. Sometimes the numbers just don't tell the full story. Methinks the cabin fever may be more virulent than CV.

 

70-80 hours a week on salary, frequent all -nighters and being woke and having to drive into the office at 2-3am.

If IT personnel off themselves for that, I wonder what the suicide rate for small-business owners is.

Probably will be sky-high soon, on account of losing everything due to the Wuhan shutdown.

 

I have a required urology surgery that I’m waiting for. I don’t know who makes up the rules for the drive surgery, but I don’t think this is elective.

Welcome aboard, my wife's cancer treatments are on hold. Fortunately we were in the winding down stages anyway. Her one injection she needs blood work before having it done and we are overdue on a few scans but fortunately all of the heavy lifting is done. I guess when they sort of reopen for regulat business things will resume.

Ron

 

Seems some are locked up in a numerology discourse. Let us not forget the human element. Sometimes the numbers just don't tell the full story. Methinks the cabin fever may be more virulent than CV.

Morning news said there has been a spike in domestic violence. Go figure.

Ron

 

I find this interesting. This is for the State of Florida:



The daily increase in absolute numbers seems to vary greatly, but the percent positive (with respect to number of tests) is (and has been) pretty much consistent.

I think we should just assume 10 percent infected, and leave it at that...

 

I don't think 300 times more infectious means 300 times more infections, I think for that to be true the infected would have to be in contact with 300 times more people.

Something like that, those numbers are just for reference.

Then what DOES it mean?

If 10% of the population gets the flu, what is your likelihood of getting the flu?

If you are then 300 times as likely to get COVID-19, how likely are you to get COVID-19?

 

Welcome aboard, my wife's cancer treatments are on hold. Fortunately we were in the winding down stages anyway. Her one injection she needs blood work before having it done and we are overdue on a few scans but fortunately all of the heavy lifting is done. I guess when they sort of reopen for regulat business things will resume.

Ron

A guy I worked with for 30 years died last week of a heart attack. He had mild chest pains but was reluctant to seek medical care because of CV fear and restrictions on routine medical care. His kids finally ordered him to the emergency room but it was too late to save him.

https://www.meaningfulfunerals.net/obituary/ralph-baird?fh_id=11775

 

Then what DOES it mean?

In the simplest terms possible...it means you have a much higher chance of contracting Covid-19 then the flu.

 

A guy I worked with for 30 years died last week of a heart attack. He had mild chest pains but was reluctant to seek medical care because of CV fear and restrictions on routine medical care. His kids finally ordered him to the emergency room but it was too late to save him.

Everything is just one big mess. My neighbors mom ended up having a heart attack and fortunately made it. They did a quickie stent and sent her home with major surgery pending. Read some numbers on what a few local large hospitals are losing, mind bogling numbers.

Ron

 

If IT personnel off themselves for that, I wonder what the suicide rate for small-business owners is.

Probably will be sky-high soon, on account of losing everything due to the Wuhan shutdown.

I wonder if there is a stat on suicide rates of those who have to deal with IT on regular basis?

 

Seems some are locked up in a numerology discourse. Let us not forget the human element. Sometimes the numbers just don't tell the full story. Methinks the cabin fever may be more virulent than CV.

No one is claiming that numbers tell the full story -- they never do.

But when someone makes a bunch of claims and one of them is absurd on the surface, it calls all of their claims into question, at least until it's explained.

 

I wonder if there is a stat on suicide rates of those who have to deal with IT on regular basis?

I only have murderous thoughts when dealing with IT.

 

In the simplest terms possible...it means you have a much higher chance of contracting Covid-19 then the flu.

So would you draw the same conclusion had he claimed that you are one billion times as likely to catch COVID-19 than the flu and been just as willing to take everything he says at face value?

 

I wonder if there is a stat on suicide rates of those who have to deal with IT on regular basis?

By "deal with IT", do you mean IT people (people that deal with information technology), or people that have to deal with IT people?

We lost two of our graduating seniors to suicide in a three day period very shortly after they were restricted to base. I doubt they will be considered as casualties of this whole mess.

 

We lost two of our graduating seniors to suicide in a three day period very shortly after they were restricted to base.

They were being proactive and took the initiative.

 

So would you draw the same conclusion had he claimed that you are one billion times as likely to catch COVID-19 than the flu and been just as willing to take everything he says at face value?

What's your best guess on the likely to catch COVID-19 than the seasonal flu question? If his number is absurd what's a realistic range?
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

So would you draw the same conclusion had he claimed that you are one billion times as likely to catch COVID-19 than the flu and been just as willing to take everything he says at face value?

I don't respond to strawman arguments.