The reason why we don't want to overload hospitals is not being communicated very well. How about "If we don't slow this thing down, when you go to the hospital and there is not a ventilator available, you will probably die by drowning in your own fluids." Leadership is dancing around the brutal truth when people need to understand consequences. Italy is doing triage because of a lack of ventilators.

The very sick and death rate in Italy for those under 40 is too low to statically quantify.

The young and healthy won't be going to the hospital for ventilators. The mass confinement is designed to stop the flow of elderly and frail flooding the medical system all a once. The brutal truth is that without a vaccine that group will eventually get infected too as we move out of mass confinement. IMO it's far better for them to be in total isolation away and much safer while the herd develops immunity to greatly limit the spread to the elderly and frail.

 

Questions and responses about total lockdown:
(very long article)

https://calmatters.org/health/2020/...gavin-newsom-senior-citizens-chronic-illness/

 

IMO it's far better for them to be in total isolation away and much safer while the herd develops immunity to greatly limit the spread to the elderly and frail.

I'll go but where?

 

I'll go but where?

In your home or facility is fine. Who will take care of them if the entire young and health population is also in forced isolation, without jobs in an economic crash? A deep recession due to the massive job loss expected from a 12 to 18 month duration of on/off total confinement cycles until a cure or vaccine is widely available will make caring for them much harder.

It's seems to me there is the wishful hope that summer will kill this virus in the current measures (lockdown, shelter in place), it probably will knock it down (but still infecting slowly) but most expect it to rebound in the fall and winter to maybe something worse if Spanish Flu is the model.

 

Some new rules in Ohio:

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Elective Surgeries The Ohio Department of Health has issued an order declaring that elective surgeries and procedures in Ohio's hospitals, as well as in outpatient surgery or procedure provider offices, be postponed in an effort to conserve personal protective equipment (PPE) for healthcare workers and first responders. The order will go into effect at the end of business on Wednesday, March 18, 2020. CLICK HERE TO READ THE ORDER. According to the guidelines, surgeries or procedures will be delayed unless there is a:​ Threat to the patient’s life if surgery or procedure is not performed Threat of permanent dysfunction of an extremity or organ system Risk of metastasis or progression of staging Risk of rapidly worsening to severe symptoms In order to preserve PPE, only individuals who are essential to conducting the surgery or procedure shall be in the surgery or procedure suite or other patient care areas where PPE is required. Each hospital and outpatient surgery or procedure provider shall establish an internal governance structure to ensure the principles outlined above are followed. Available PPE Any available personal protective equipment, such as gloves or masks can be donated to help the State of Ohio prepare for a hospital surge. If your office or business has available items, please contact your local Emergency Management Agency (EMA). A listing of OHIO COUNTY EMAs CAN BE FOUND HERE.​

Epicrisis: Maybe the "just in time" supply chain philosophy will be re-evaluated when it is over.

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/C...chip-industry-defied-the-coronavirus-lockdown

"You have to present special permits from both local and central governments, and medical proof that you are healthy when you board the train. You will then be arranged in a special carriage, along with other people who are also returning to work in strategic industries such as semiconductors," a person briefed on the process told the Nikkei Asian Review.

"Yes, don't be surprised. The train will stop at Wuhan for you."
...
These secret trips, which have not yet been reported, brought volunteer employees back to the center of the epidemic to relieve some 300 engineers who had been working on rotating shifts at the factory since the shutdown began. Many were young professionals under the age of 30, who were originally assigned to cover the Lunar New Year but then became stranded at the facility. For more than a month, they labored to keep the plant running.

"They are banned from leaving the company campus and are under massive pressure. ... Most of them work more than 10-12 hours a day and are on call all the time," said an industry source familiar with the matter. The government also lifted labor regulations to allow employees to work more than the mandatory cap of 36 hours overtime a month.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tes...lly-despite-county-coronavirus-lockdown-order

FREMONT, Calif., March 18 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc's TSLA.O U.S. vehicle factory in California on Wednesday appeared to operate normally despite an order by the county's sheriff's office to comply with a three-week lockdown in the San Francisco Bay Area to rein in the spread of coronavirus.

Thousands of cars were visible on the factory's employee parking lot and employees were going to work, Reuters witnesses saw.

Several 18-wheeler container trucks were also seen pulling onto the factory grounds, according to the witnesses.

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Whilst our understanding of infectious diseases and their prevention is now very different compared to in 1918, most of the countries across the world face the same challenge today with COVID-19, a virus with comparable lethality to H1N1 influenza in 1918. Two fundamental strategies are possible2 :
(a) Suppression. Here the aim is to reduce the reproduction number (the average number of secondary cases each case generates), R, to below 1 and hence to reduce case numbers to low levels or (as for SARS or Ebola) eliminate human-to-human transmission. The main challenge of this approach is that NPIs (and drugs, if available) need to be maintained – at least intermittently - for as long as the virus is circulating in the human population, or until a vaccine becomes available. In the case of COVID-19, it will be at least a 12-18 months before a vaccine is available3 . Furthermore, there is no guarantee that initial vaccines will have high efficacy.
b) Mitigation. Here the aim is to use NPIs (and vaccines or drugs, if available) not to interrupt transmission completely, but to reduce the health impact of an epidemic, akin to the strategy adopted by some US cities in 1918, and by the world more generally in the 1957, 1968 and 2009 influenza pandemics. In the 2009 pandemic, for instance, early supplies of vaccine were targeted at individuals with pre-existing medical conditions which put them at risk of more severe disease4 . In this scenario, population immunity builds up through the epidemic, leading to an eventual rapid decline in case numbers and transmission dropping to low levels. The strategies differ in whether they aim to reduce the reproduction number, R, to below 1 (suppression) – and thus cause case numbers to decline – or to merely slow spread by reducing R, but not to below 1.

 

Expect to see a S-storm over the legality of "Mandatory Closure" and who has the legal authority to declare one. There is already talk of collecting damages from china...

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/C...chip-industry-defied-the-coronavirus-lockdown



https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tes...lly-despite-county-coronavirus-lockdown-order

I just bought gas yesterday at $1.88. With these prices, what sane person is going to by an electric car?

Edit: or a windmill, for that matter?

 

Expect to see a S-storm over the legality of "Mandatory Closure" and who has the legal authority to declare one. There is already talk of collecting damages from china...

The threat is there and you can declare just about anything. Enforcement outside Martial Law is impossible if maybe >1% of the population decides not of self isolate.

Damages from China?

 

Leadership is dancing around the brutal truth when people need to understand consequences.

That's exactly what rubbed me the wrong way when my local health officials in January were saying "don't panic". Well OK, panic is rarely useful but stop soft-pedaling this thing! More action in February could have made a difference.

 

That's exactly what rubbed me the wrong way when my local health officials in January were saying "don't panic". Well OK, panic is rarely useful but stop soft-pedaling this thing! More action in February could have made a difference.

What else could have done in January or February to materially change today's events other than being in a lockdown for an extra month like China? By Chinese New-Year the board was set world-wide with asymptomatic carriers roaming the planet. The most we could have done IMO was to flatten the curve a bit during this infection cycle, not stop it.

 

I'll go but where?

My grandma is over 90. She lives alone (always has aways will). Family visits her. At this time she goes out for groceries every day by herself. To prevent her from getting sick would be easy - someone just needs to drop food off weekly at her door.

One of thw issues in North American culture is the prevalence of nursing homes. Much of the rest of the world only relies on them as last resort. My other grandma is 80 and also lives by herself. This is in Russia.

Interestingly, Russia's numbers are very low. I did find a few good write ups discussing the issue, they seem to be correct. Russia took aggressive measures early and are trying to prevent it feom spreading. Will see how it goes.

I am of the opinion that high risk population should be protected and life should go on. Otherwise as stated already, this should happen every year with flu - we never know how deadly any given flu strain is nor do we know effectiveness of the vaccine (usially low). So why is this different? And why let the virus linger until next flu season?

 

I believe them. Anyone with the virus has already been shot, the body burned and the family brainwashed.

Nah... the family was shot, too, as a preventative measure. Can't be too careful when peoples' lives are at stake.

 

Nah... the family was shot to as a preventative measure. Can't be too careful when peoples' lives are at stake.

Why WBahn you do have a dark side. You should let it out more.
Brzrkr

 

An influenza medicine developed by a Fujifilm Holdings group company is effective against the new coronavirus, the Chinese government said on Tuesday.

Beijing has already begun recommending the drug favipiravir, developed by Fujifilm Toyama Chemical and sold under the brand name Avigan.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/C...veloped-drug-Avigan-works-against-coronavirus

 

My grandma is over 90. She lives alone (always has aways will). Family visits her. At this time she goes out for groceries every day by herself. To prevent her from getting sick would be easy - someone just needs to drop food off weekly at her door.

One of thw issues in North American culture is the prevalence of nursing homes. Much of the rest of the world only relies on them as last resort. My other grandma is 80 and also lives by herself. This is in Russia.

Interestingly, Russia's numbers are very low. I did find a few good write ups discussing the issue, they seem to be correct. Russia took aggressive measures early and are trying to prevent it feom spreading. Will see how it goes.

I am of the opinion that high risk population should be protected and life should go on. Otherwise as stated already, this should happen every year with flu - we never know how deadly any given flu strain is nor do we know effectiveness of the vaccine (usially low). So why is this different? And why let the virus linger until next flu season?

I don't put any faith in the Russian infected and dead numbers. They have no clue of the real numbers of infected just like the rest of the world.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020...s-the-numbers-dont-tell-the-full-story-a69661

With 116,000 tests for the coronavirus carried out and 114 returning positive, Russia’s ratio of tests to positive cases is 0.09%, the lowest among all of the countries infected by the coronavirus. The second lowest ratio is Taiwan’s 0.3% — three times higher than Russia’s.

Not even the Russian authorities, however, trust those numbers.

“The figures are likely a lot higher,” Alexei Kurinny, a deputy on the State Duma’s health protection committee, told The Moscow Times. “Unfortunately we were slow to get around to doing comprehensive testing.”

But despite these measures, medical experts are now questioning whether Russia’s official coronavirus statistics reflect reality in the country — which ranked 116th last year in the Global Health Security Index for “detecting” pandemics.

If the numbers are significantly higher, officials may have missed their opportunity to stem the tide — leaving the weight on the shoulders of doctors already stretched thin by a teetering healthcare system.

 

Now they backtracked on the need of feeding the impoverished kids at school and closed them here. The Sherriff will have his deputies delivering prepaid drugstore purchases to homes. Some of the businesses are having "seniors hours".

 

 

Coronavirus Cases Inch Back up in Asia, Denting Hopes That Disease Was Contained
‘TEMPORARY SUCCESS’
Jamie Ross, Reporter
Updated Mar. 18, 2020 7:56AM ET /
Published Mar. 18, 2020 5:29AM ET
REUTERS


As Europe and the United States try to deal with their first waves of the coronavirus pandemic, there are concerning signs coming from Asia that this could only be the beginning of the struggle. The Financial Times reports that virus cases have inched back up in several Asian countries, denting hopes that strict containment measures introduced throughout the continent had been successful. The governments of South Korea, Taiwan, and some parts of China are reportedly bringing in urgent new containment measures after seeing rises in new infections after weeks of declines. “What many people hadn’t recognized is that it is only a temporary success, it is not a permanent success,” Ben Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong, told the FT. Infections appear to have increased as people fled home from the coronavirus outbreak in Europe, but the resurgence may also expose the limits of the containment strategy.

https://www.ft.com/content/859e9336-68db-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75