Bayesian Network and Samiam: Predicting Elections

Thread Starter

zulfi100

Joined Jun 7, 2012
656
Hi,

In the diagram, I have shown 3 major issues but let’s consider that there are 4 issues and I have got following data related to Texas state:

C19=COVID19 = 38%=0.38

EJ= Economy and Job (28%)=0.28

R=Racism(9%)=0.09

HC = Health care = (9%)=0.09

Party Affiliations:

D= Democrat = 39%=0.39

Re =republican= 40%=0.04

N = neutral

There are total 17 million voters

Somebody please guide me how can I use the above data to predict the inclination of voters to one of the two candidates in a two party System where one of the candidates is the incumbent.Please feel free to suggest the modifications.
samiam






Bayesian Network.png
Zulfi.
 
Last edited:

Thread Starter

zulfi100

Joined Jun 7, 2012
656
Hi,
First try would look a joke, please guide me how to improve. I am trying to understand the bayesian network.

Zulfi.
 

Thread Starter

zulfi100

Joined Jun 7, 2012
656
Hi,
Thanks for other link. It provides some formulae. Can I use my network to calculate number of voters for a particular candidate using conditional probabilities?

Zulfi.
 

WBahn

Joined Mar 31, 2012
26,398
Hi,
Thanks for other link. It provides some formulae. Can I use my network to calculate number of voters for a particular candidate using conditional probabilities?

Zulfi.
No, because probabilities are just that -- there's a reason they are not called certainties.
 

WBahn

Joined Mar 31, 2012
26,398
Hi,
Can I use the probabilities to make a prediction that the candidate has got above 75% votes?

Zulfi.
I don't see how you could use the information in your first post to do so. You haven't given anything remotely like the conditional probabilities you would need to have.
 

Thread Starter

zulfi100

Joined Jun 7, 2012
656
Hi,
I have normalized the percentages to values between 0 and 1, consider them as conditional probilities. But do you know how to use the tool samiam?

Zulfi.
 

WBahn

Joined Mar 31, 2012
26,398
Hi,
I have normalized the percentages to values between 0 and 1, consider them as conditional probilities. But do you know how to use the tool samiam?

Zulfi.
Conditional probabilities of what?

Do you even understand what a conditional probability is?

And, no, I do not how to use this particular tool for visualizing Bayesian networks, but there appear to be no shortage of tutorials available.
 

Thread Starter

zulfi100

Joined Jun 7, 2012
656
Hi,
Thanks for your time.
I am actually looking for somebody who knows the tool.
I have gone through those tutorials but I can't create any network, that's why I have posted here because its a ML forum. If you can guide me after reading the tutorial, I would check again in 10-15 minutes.

Zulfi.
 

WBahn

Joined Mar 31, 2012
26,398
I'm not going to read the tutorial to learn to use a tool that I have no desire to learn, let along install on my machine. You need to learn how to teach yourself instead of expecting to be spoonfed everything.
 

Thread Starter

zulfi100

Joined Jun 7, 2012
656
I'm not going to read the tutorial to learn to use a tool that I have no desire to learn, let along install on my machine. You need to learn how to teach yourself instead of expecting to be spoonfed everything.
Okay then don't tell me about the tutorial. I have read it and I know that it does not solve the probem. You were telling me that, that's why I asked you to read it so that you know how much these tutorials are useful.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
8,259
Okay then don't tell me about the tutorial. I have read it and I know that it does not solve the probem. You were telling me that, that's why I asked you to read it so that you know how much these tutorials are useful.
Did you make any progress in predicting the past?
 

Thread Starter

zulfi100

Joined Jun 7, 2012
656
Hi,
Thanks for your response. I can't find any body helping me with that tool so I would follow your advise but I am not in a hurry becuase the results may not be announced in near future.

Zulfi.
 
Top