There's been a statistical anomaly that I have witnessed and been following closely for a long time, as it applies to myself. I never witness automobile accidents. I have been in a handful of accidents myself, and I drive by one or two on the side of the road almost daily, but I have never actually seen one happen, that I wasn't involved in (until this morning).
It seems very counter intuitive to be this way. At any given time on a packed highway, I have probably 20 cars in my field of view. So if an accident were to happen within my field of view, it seems like there would be a 95% chance that it would happen to someone other than me. But until this morning, when ever there has been an accident in my field of view, I was involved in it 100% of the time.
I know you're going to joke around about my driving skills, so I'll get that out of the way now; Am I a bad driver? maybe. I've been involved in 3 at-fault accidents in the 12 years I've been driving (all in the first 3 years), and been rear-ended 3 times also. I don't know how that measures up to everyone's criteria, but it seems that to have been involved in 6 accidents and never seen one otherwise, where the likelihood is 1 in 20 each, comes out to an overall likelihood of 1 in 64 million to be in my shoes. I seriously doubt that I'm that "lucky" (unlucky).
Am I an inattentive driver? Could there have been accidents in my peripheral vision throughout the years that I missed? Maybe a few. But going back to my flaky math, in order to satisfy the 1 in 20 "rule," having been in 6 accidents, I should have seen about 120 accidents and I didn't see ANY.
So, what are your experiences? How many accidents have you been in and how many have you seen? How terrible is my math? Please, state your statistical analysis, because I'm sure mine full of holes.
It seems very counter intuitive to be this way. At any given time on a packed highway, I have probably 20 cars in my field of view. So if an accident were to happen within my field of view, it seems like there would be a 95% chance that it would happen to someone other than me. But until this morning, when ever there has been an accident in my field of view, I was involved in it 100% of the time.
I know you're going to joke around about my driving skills, so I'll get that out of the way now; Am I a bad driver? maybe. I've been involved in 3 at-fault accidents in the 12 years I've been driving (all in the first 3 years), and been rear-ended 3 times also. I don't know how that measures up to everyone's criteria, but it seems that to have been involved in 6 accidents and never seen one otherwise, where the likelihood is 1 in 20 each, comes out to an overall likelihood of 1 in 64 million to be in my shoes. I seriously doubt that I'm that "lucky" (unlucky).
Am I an inattentive driver? Could there have been accidents in my peripheral vision throughout the years that I missed? Maybe a few. But going back to my flaky math, in order to satisfy the 1 in 20 "rule," having been in 6 accidents, I should have seen about 120 accidents and I didn't see ANY.
So, what are your experiences? How many accidents have you been in and how many have you seen? How terrible is my math? Please, state your statistical analysis, because I'm sure mine full of holes.