Since you intend to saturate the transistor, you should assume a low CTR and drive the LED appropriately. If you want to minimize dissipation in the LED, you need to determine how low LED current can be to still saturate the output transistor.The second graph is not aplicable in my case, I think. There is no 10V
Circuit simulator results often don't mirror reality. If you want more meaningful results, you have to change simulation parameters. For such a simple circuit, I wouldn't bother. You should be able to do the design on your own.