Maybe not NO one. Sci-fi writers often get a lot right, such as Arthur C. Clarke with his global satellite coverage. And occasionally a "futurist" such as Ray Kurzweil can get enough right to get people to listen to him. Really anyone can map out some trends with some thought. It just seems that very few us actually put serious effort into thinking about such things. Too busy updating Facebook or whatever it is people do.The problem with predicting the future is that no one can see how ideas may come together...
William Gibson said...
Really anyone can map out some trends with some thought. It just seems that very few us actually put serious effort into thinking about such things. Too busy updating Facebook or whatever it is people do.
so as you say it is relatively straight forward to make near future predictions. What is often left out of the the thinking is the human element, no one predicted social media, or that a search facility would be one of the biggest companies in the world, or that gaming would be bigger than television. The people who think about the future tend only to think in terms of technological advance and leave out how people will interact with and exploit the technology."the future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed"
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by Jake Hertz