AI is set to bring reform changes in major industries. Will this be a disruption or promote growth?

spinnaker

Joined Oct 29, 2009
7,835
A lot of people are skeptical regarding AI taking over most of jobs with automating processes and back office work. While there is also a group of supporters who believe its just an initial phase and AI will infact generate an entire new range of work/jobs for people.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/oracle/2018/10/23/3-predictions-from-oracle-ceo-mark-hurd-about-the-use-of-artificial-intelligence/#1583c6cf2e

If it generates jobs it will be for those that have the intelligence and education to be able to handle those jobs. Their are lots of good hard working people in the world that simply do not have the intelligence to handle such jobs, no matter how hard they try. Lots of people will likely be out a job with no place to go. Truck, drivers, cab drivers, delivery services , garbage pickup, food services all easily automated. What do we do for those people?

I can't stand when an answering device answers the phone for a company to route calls. AI is likely to be a million times more frustrating.
 

wayneh

Joined Sep 9, 2010
17,153
A lot of people are skeptical regarding AI taking over most of jobs with automating processes and back office work.
When my sister was in high school 45 years ago, her counselor advised her to go into "leisure studies" because soon machines would be doing all the work and humans would have nothing but leisure time to fill up. How'd that work out? So yeah, I'm skeptical that any huge change is right around the corner.

Automation will continue to advance slowly and incrementally just as it has since the beginning of the industrial revolution. AI will become a growing part of that. The jobs that people do will change as we hand off more and more tasks to our "servants". Ray Kurzweil and other "futurists" predicted this a long time ago. Things get interesting when a computer with the capacity of a human brain can fit into the volume occupied by a human brain, and anyone can afford it.

Truck driving is currently the single largest occupation in America. Self-driving trucks are not terribly far off. Our first big battle with AI-driven machines is set to begin soon and it will be an interesting show.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
8,775
Truck driving is currently the single largest occupation in America. Self-driving trucks are not terribly far off. Our first big battle with AI-driven machines is set to begin soon and it will be an interesting show.
I can't wait for the first hijacked self-driving truck reports. How aggressive can you program the AI to be? Will it ignore a mannequin in the road designed to fool its little computer brain?
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608618/hackers-are-the-real-obstacle-for-self-driving-vehicles/
But the efforts being made to date may be missing the next security trend. The computer vision and collision avoidance systems under development for autonomous vehicles rely on complex machine-learning algorithms that are not well understood, even by the companies that rely on them (see “The Dark Secret at the Heart of AI”).

Last year researchers at CMU demonstrated that state-of-the-art face recognition algorithms could be defeated by wearing a pair of clear glasses with a funky pattern printed on their frames. Something about the pattern tipped the algorithm in just the right way, and it thought it saw what wasn’t there. “We showed that attackers can evade state-of-the-art face recognition algorithms that are based on neural networks for the purpose of impersonating a target person, or simply getting identified incorrectly,” lead researcher Mahmood Sharif wrote in an e-mail.
 

cmartinez

Joined Jan 17, 2007
7,455
I can't wait for the first hijacked self-driving truck reports. How aggressive can you program the AI to be? Will it ignore a mannequin in the road designed to fool its little computer brain?
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608618/hackers-are-the-real-obstacle-for-self-driving-vehicles/
Loved the closing paragraph:

... we should be as cautious of AI explanations as we are of each other’s—no matter how clever a machine seems. “If it can’t do better than us at explaining what it’s doing,” he says, “then don’t trust it.”
 

Glenn Holland

Joined Dec 26, 2014
705
The main objective for technology of any sort is to increase production and now days, that means eliminating human intervention in many processes.

Back in the 1940s and 50s, automatic elevators replaced 1000s of human operators. CNC machining has eliminated most manual labor in manufacturing and computerization is eliminating human intervention in most information based processes. I've often said that would be parents need to be very careful in their plan to have children because they may not be employable when they grow up.
 

Thread Starter

marcuskeene

Joined Oct 15, 2018
27
If it generates jobs it will be for those that have the intelligence and education to be able to handle those jobs.
I always used to believe that the agenda is to build AI that assists us and makes us more efficient.
Don't you think the education system and industries will change too and we will see a new set of jobs?
 

Thread Starter

marcuskeene

Joined Oct 15, 2018
27
I can't wait for the first hijacked self-driving truck reports. How aggressive can you program the AI to be? Will it ignore a mannequin in the road designed to fool its little computer brain?
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608618/hackers-are-the-real-obstacle-for-self-driving-vehicles/
This is something that concerns me, we have created too much hype around this but honestly we are not prepared for such innovations. Its not just about technology we also need to prepare the infrastructure. We are somehow overdoing it while ignoring the actual areas that need improvisation.
 

spinnaker

Joined Oct 29, 2009
7,835
I always used to believe that the agenda is to build AI that assists us and makes us more efficient.
Don't you think the education system and industries will change too and we will see a new set of jobs?

I know number of good hard working people that do not have the intelligence to be educated in such jobs. No amount of education is going to be able to change that. Unless maybe there will be some type of job like robot oiler ;) created I am not sure what function these people will play.
 

justtrying

Joined Mar 9, 2011
434
I always used to believe that the agenda is to build AI that assists us and makes us more efficient.
Don't you think the education system and industries will change too and we will see a new set of jobs?
Education system is always at least 10 years behind the industry. Why do we need AI to assist us? We are devekoping something that we donnot understand and cannot control. What would be the end product?

I see the goal as improvement of production, only in a consumer based economy it will also wipe out the consumer. What is the point of improved production if noone can purchase the products? The system is broken... Amazon is expanding though... their slavery model is quite interesting.

AI is looking to replace such jobs as diagnistic medicine within the next few years (radiology is high on the list). But really all those companies want is your data
 

jgessling

Joined Jul 31, 2009
82
The computer biz has a long history of fads that have failed. In 1984 (how appropriate?) I was part of a customer delegation invited to Boston by DEC to see their future whiz bangs projects. One of these was the miraculous Artficial Intelligence that could do amazing things like figure out how to optimaly load and unload container ships. Interesting problem really and it had to be figured out before the ship arrived at the next port and new containers were showing up all the time.

That version of AI didn’t put us all out of work and this one won’t either. A self driving car that can be defeated by a beach ball isn’t worth much. And the clever routing algorithms that send 100’s of cars down our street past the school in the afternoon will soon be defeated by good old fashioned political pressure on the local authorities. Can’t AI that.
 

bogosort

Joined Sep 24, 2011
678
We're no closer to general AI than we were 50 years ago. One day it may come, but that day is a long ways away. I'd think differently if GAI were only one or two technological breakthroughs from becoming reality. But the true impediment to GAI is not lack of technological resources; it's a lack of understanding, and that doesn't get fixed through the usual iterations.

Put it this way: of all the things we've found in the universe, the human brain is arguably the most complex, with general intelligence its most complex phenomenon. Since we're still stuck trying to understand even the basic rules of the universe, I don't have much confidence that we'll unlock its most complicated mystery anytime soon.

In the meantime, we'll continue to integrate regular (dumb) AI into everything we do and interact with. The limitations will be obvious, so we'll get much better at applying dumb AI where it's best suited. More ambitious goals, like autonomous vehicles, will require significant help in the form of dedicated infrastructure. I expect it will play out much like air travel and its slow but steady transition from Kitty Hawk to the modern system of airports, regulations, and scheduled air service. Despite what the media says, AI is not a disruptive technology.
 

FineWire

Joined Oct 12, 2018
4
We live in the data era and AI is essential to improve our lives and how the human kind evolves. I think AI will It boost scientific research and productivity in general however, ethical dilemmas need to be addressed in order to allow humanity to overcome its existential fears over AI. So maybe it’s a grey area? It can be both disruptive and helpful.
 

Glenn Holland

Joined Dec 26, 2014
705
Automation is extincting high end jobs all the time.

"Seismobotics" (automated analysis of earthquake activity) is now the world standard in geophysics. Install a network of sensors and network them to a central computer and there's no need to hire a bunch of graduate scientists.
 

Thread Starter

marcuskeene

Joined Oct 15, 2018
27
Education system is always at least 10 years behind the industry. Why do we need AI to assist us? We are devekoping something that we donnot understand and cannot control. What would be the end product?
Well. I think the education structure is changing with AI and VR coming together. There are new courses and immense possibilties that students these days have to explore and move ahead. I mean I understand we are moving too quick and not much is happening if you compare, but things are definitely changing.

I see the goal as improvement of production, only in a consumer based economy it will also wipe out the consumer. What is the point of improved production if noone can purchase the products?
AI is looking to replace such jobs as diagnistic medicine within the next few years (radiology is high on the list). But really all those companies -want is your data
I sometimes think we are being too skeptical. AI has a lot of potential if we know how to put it to use. When we say consumers will be void of purchases and rights, we ignore the fact that AI is just a tool 'WE' have designed to assist us.
I agree that post-scarcity will have its implications, but we cannot deny that it also is giving us valuable solutions. Its solely how we put it to use that determines the future.
 

Thread Starter

marcuskeene

Joined Oct 15, 2018
27
In the meantime, we'll continue to integrate regular (dumb) AI into everything we do and interact with. The limitations will be obvious, so we'll get much better at applying dumb AI where it's best suited. More ambitious goals, like autonomous vehicles, will require significant help in the form of dedicated infrastructure. I expect it will play out much like air travel and its slow but steady transition from Kitty Hawk to the modern system of airports, regulations, and scheduled air service. Despite what the media says, AI is not a disruptive technology.
Wow. You just made everybody working religiously to achieve AI perfection, a bunch of idiots running directionless.
However, there's a lot happening in AI + neural networks, we see a lot of AI being useful in life sciences and diagnostics. We may be far from reaching AGI but in between, we will discover some truly amazing innovations that will change the face of healthcare system.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
8,775
Wow. You just made everybody working religiously to achieve AI perfection, a bunch of idiots running directionless.
However, there's a lot happening in AI + neural networks, we see a lot of AI being useful in life sciences and diagnostics. We may be far from reaching AGI but in between, we will discover some truly amazing innovations that will change the face of healthcare system.
Neural networks/Deep Learning system excel at matching X to Y patterns in random data. Its something most humans are poor at over long periods of time. It works to a point but because it lacks actual discernment of what the data means the results are only as good as the data set supplied during learning with all the human biases embedded during the generation and collection of that data. If the data set includes well hidden patterns to problems at hand the machine might find it but it won't find answers that require actual intelligent insight.
 

bogosort

Joined Sep 24, 2011
678
Wow. You just made everybody working religiously to achieve AI perfection, a bunch of idiots running directionless.
I did no such thing. Perhaps you take exception to my use of the phrase "dumb AI", but I think that's an entirely fair epithet as there is no actual intelligence in the tools that we're presently calling artificial intelligence. In any case, it should clear that I'm making a statement about the algorithms, not the people who design and use such algorithms.

However, there's a lot happening in AI + neural networks, we see a lot of AI being useful in life sciences and diagnostics. We may be far from reaching AGI but in between, we will discover some truly amazing innovations that will change the face of healthcare system.
I never said that dumb AI isn't useful -- I said the opposite, in fact: we're going to get really good at integrating dumb AI into our lives. As for truly amazing innovations, we'll have to wait for GAI.
 

justtrying

Joined Mar 9, 2011
434
Neural networks/Deep Learning system excel at matching X to Y patterns in random data. Its something most humans are poor at over long periods of time. It works to a point but because it lacks actual discernment of what the data means the results are only as good as the data set supplied during learning with all the human biases embedded during the generation and collection of that data. If the data set includes well hidden patterns to problems at hand the machine might find it but it won't find answers that require actual intelligent insight.
Yes, AI is great at looking for patterns in data. It can also find patterns that are not really there. Does it know those are not real patterns. Does it know that there is difference between correlation and causation? It also will carry all the biases that have been programmed into it and will greatly amplify them... You think we have problems with critical thinking now? Thinking involves emotion and prior history. It is a difficult process. Dumb AI is good, for data crunching.

And yes, teaching coding to kids is 10 years behind, they need to be able to think. No one is teaching that anymore.
 
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