Will we see a real self driving car in our life time?

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,316
http://www.slate.com/articles/techn...ing_cars_will_exacerbate_organ_shortages.html
It’s morbid, but the truth is that due to limitations on who can contribute transplants, among the most reliable sources for healthy organs and tissues are the more than 35,000 people killed each year on American roads (a number that, after years of falling mortality rates, has recently been trending upward). Currently, 1 in 5 organ donations comes from the victim of a vehicular accident. That’s why departments of motor vehicles ask drivers whether they want to be donors.
 

ClassOfZero

Joined Dec 28, 2016
114
Don't worry, us motorcyclists will never submit to anything that takes human input away from us, so be assured the squids will be a source of organs.
It took all of 10 minutes for one the first bikes that came with ABS to be confused by a rider on dirt.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,316
Don't worry, us motorcyclists will never submit to anything that takes human input away from us, so be assured the squids will be a source of organs.
It took all of 10 minutes for one the first bikes that came with ABS to be confused by a rider on dirt.
I was a street bike rider for a long time in my youth I think that giving ABS to a beginner with little experience in manual front/rear brake control is a mixed blessing as they will tend to treat brakes as a off/on switch that will fail just when they need the experiences of handling brake lockup the most. That said I don't ride anymore, far too many idiot cage drivers on the road for my taste and most of my old organs are just not up to max efficiency these days.
 

dannyf

Joined Sep 13, 2015
2,197
When an accident is unavoidable, what should the car do? This puts us in the realm of ethics.
I actually talked to some guests at a party last week about this very point. Aside from the lawsuits (topic of the night as those were mostly lawyers and investors), the ethics question would be the most interesting to tackle.

I think in the end, there is a large or even vital role for the governments to play, both on the legal / insurance and ethics fronts, for self-driving cars to materialize.
 

BR-549

Joined Sep 22, 2013
4,928
Why not make a table for the angle and rate of angle, for the 3 axis, in which the car is considered out of control or un-correctable.....and if that is a true condition........do what happens in human accidents.....let nature take it's course.

That is ....no control action and let inertia take it's course. No fault insurance.

Of course some lawyer will say that the software should have never let the car get in that condition in the first place.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,316
Why not make a table for the angle and rate of angle, for the 3 axis, in which the car is considered out of control or un-correctable.....and if that is a true condition........do what happens in human accidents.....let nature take it's course.

That is ....no control action and let inertia take it's course. No fault insurance.

Of course some lawyer will say that the software should have never let the car get in that condition in the first place.
Just add the Securefoam system.
 

dannyf

Joined Sep 13, 2015
2,197
let nature take it's course.
the fundamental issue here is that:

1) by driving the cars via software, the auto OEMs are drivers;
2) those "OEM drivers" have deep pockets, making them a natural target for litigation.

the cost to sue anyone, especially if you are a lawyer, is minimum, yet the potential payoff can be huge.
 

GopherT

Joined Nov 23, 2012
8,009
the fundamental issue here is that:

1) by driving the cars via software, the auto OEMs are drivers;
2) those "OEM drivers" have deep pockets, making them a natural target for litigation.

the cost to sue anyone, especially if you are a lawyer, is minimum, yet the potential payoff can be huge.
As stated above, the decision tree of who to sacrifice in each situation will be solved through legislation. Auto companies will eventually be protected by law just like firearm manufacturers are currently protected from lawsuit.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,316
https://arstechnica.co.uk/cars/2017/02/self-driving-car-insurance-liability-uk/
The first item on the bill involves automated vehicles, and how to ensure that the vehicle's owner (which may or may not be a driver) and potential accident victims are protected. The bill says that insurance companies must offer two types of protection: for when a vehicle is acting autonomously, but also if the human driver decides to takes control. Essentially, the government wants to make sure that an accident victim can always claim compensation from the insurance company, even if the car was acting autonomously.

It would then be up for the insurance company to try and reclaim that money from the car maker through existing common law and product liability arrangements. An impact assessment from last year details how the government thinks this process might occur in practice:
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,316
http://www.autoblog.com/2017/02/21/race-for-autonomous-cars-is-over-mcelroy-autoline-opinion/
This is where most in the Valley missed a crucial point. The history of the auto industry shows that all technologies get whittled down to a handful of global suppliers who then get caught up in a cost-cutting race to the bottom. When the tech companies decided to go after autonomous cars they were not dreaming of simply becoming automotive suppliers. It never dawned on them that maybe they'd only end up making - at best - 10% profit margins, not the 40% margins the Valley investment community feeds on.
...
To paraphrase Elon Musk, Silicon Valley is learning that "Making rockets is hard, but making cars is really hard." People outside of the auto industry tend to have a shallow understanding of how complex the business really is. They think all you have to do is design a car and start making it. But most startups never make it past theconcept car stage because the move to mass production proves too daunting. Even Tesla, the only successful automotive company to come out of Silicon Valley so far, made but 80,000 cars last year and it's been in business for nearly 15 years
The reality of the marketplace sucks.
 

GopherT

Joined Nov 23, 2012
8,009
What an idiot, 74 mph on a highway with uncontrolled intersections.

US-27A is a four-lane highway with a posted speed limit of 65 mph. A 75-foot-wide median separates the two eastbound lanes from the two westbound lanes. Additionally, at the uncontrolled intersection with NE 140th Court, both eastbound and westbound lanes incorporate left turn lanes, allowing for a median opening of about 132 feet.
Who the hell at Florida DOT posted a 65 mph speed limit on a non limited access highway - let alone one with uncontrolled intersections.

Uncontrolled intersection
An uncontrolled intersection is a road intersection where no traffic lights or signs are used to indicate the right-of-way. Mostly, uncontrolled intersections are unmarked. However, in some locations, motorists may be warned by road signage or a warning light. They are found in either residential neighborhoods or in rural areas.

At uncontrolled 4-way intersections, traffic is commonly required to slow and give way to any traffic on the right in countries which drive on the right, and slow and give way to traffic to the left in countries which drive on the left.[citation needed]
This was also the guy, I believe, who posted YouTube videos where he is playing on his phone while the Tesla is in self driving mode.
 

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
11,497
Hi,

The gov protects us against nuclear war but does nothing about the "marketplace". It has a gov of it's own that pushes for higher price with lower quality as a rule of thumb. There's no way a civilization can survive forever with that kind of trend. Doomsday prophecy? No not really because that would be noticed more clearly. This is like a very slow road to doomsday.
 

nsaspook

Joined Aug 27, 2009
13,316
Hi,

The gov protects us against nuclear war but does nothing about the "marketplace". It has a gov of it's own that pushes for higher price with lower quality as a rule of thumb. There's no way a civilization can survive forever with that kind of trend. Doomsday prophecy? No not really because that would be noticed more clearly. This is like a very slow road to doomsday.
What's the alternative, central control of markets, manufacturing, goods and services that leads to a even quicker Doomsday prophecy? The very slow road sounds much better.
 

MrAl

Joined Jun 17, 2014
11,497
What's the alternative, central control of markets, manufacturing, goods and services that leads to a even quicker Doomsday prophecy? The very slow road sounds much better.
Hello,

It appears that by your own personal estimation that there is nothing better, but how do you know that your idea of what is apparently the single and only alternative is worse, even if it was the only alternative. You're suggesting that animals run free, but we already know that. It's is clear that doing nothing is not a solution. If it was, we would not need government. Note the word "govern" in "government" :)
 
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