Sea Level rising?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by wmodavis, Feb 14, 2012.

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  1. wmodavis

    Thread Starter Well-Known Member

    Oct 23, 2010
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    Recently I was admonished with words to the effect that 'it is a fact that sea levels are rising'. That was a pretty broad statement to make especially with no evidence to back it up other than to some reverence to the epitomy of all sources of truth - Wikipedia. Wikipedia may be referencing the 'predictions' of sea level because those are always rising to put us in a state of panic.

    The TOPEX satellite data shows the 60 day smoothed trend is still stalled and shows no rise over what was seen since the peak in mid 2010.

    And the really interesting data is from ENVISAT, which shows no upward trend. Sea level is in fact lower than eight years ago, and according to the graph just passed the lowest annual peak in the Envisat record.

    Look for yourself at the data shown here.

    Further data http://sealevel.colorado.edu/

    Of course this is just my humble opinion backed up by satallite data.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2012
  2. joeyd999

    AAC Fanatic!

    Jun 6, 2011
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    I don't think we are supposed to discuss religion here... :D
     
  3. loosewire

    AAC Fanatic!

    Apr 25, 2008
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    My 180 pounds is the cause of the oceans levels rising. You can see my wake

    in my picture.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2012
  4. justtrying

    Active Member

    Mar 9, 2011
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    are you trying to say that they are not rising at all or to point out that San Francisco will be OK?

    p.s. the article actually points out nicely that rise in sea level is real, continuous and affected by more factors than we realize or can possibly account for ;)
     
  5. Brownout

    Well-Known Member

    Jan 10, 2012
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    The first two of those graphs linked shows a definite upward trend. One can take any small part of the graph and make it look like nothing happened, but taken as a whole, both show rising sea levels over the time from 1992 to 2012.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2012
  6. steveb

    Senior Member

    Jul 3, 2008
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    Yes, and one can go back into records for at least 150 years that also show a clear upward trend continually.

    Some people are not familiar with the concept of measurement error and why it is important to take make measurements using different methods from many places over the world. Such people like to take isolated samples of data that seem to prove their point. It seems this Envisat data is one that people like to focus on. It is over a short enough period to show a less than clear trend. Some people even skew this data and try to show that it indicates a downward trend. In fairness, there are examples of people on the other side of the issue doing the same thing and making a big deal about data that shows a very alarming increasing trend. This is a case where a large amount of data, taken over a very long time, is needed to be sure about what is really happening.

    I've attached my own plot of the available Envisat data and did a linear regression using the polyfit function in Octave. The slope is still positive with a value of 0.32 mm/year. Even though this number is 10 times less than the longer term upward trend found with a broader range of measurements (broad in time and in location), it is still a positive number. So, I don't really understand the OP's point. The best contradictory data he can find still shows increasing sea level. However, even if it showed a slight downward trend, it wouldn't mean too much because the time period is too short and it is only one data set that might be biased by experimental error, as all experiments are.

    The stall in the trend over the last year is hardly a reason to expect a long term stall or a sudden drop in sea level going forward. The fluctuations are just too small and well within the normal range of changes.

    The statement that the sea level is lower than 8 years ago is laughable. Even in the Envisat data, the trend indicates higher sea level now. At best, one could say that the change is small and difficult to resolve with confidence.

    But, who cares about 8 years, or brief stalls, or any short term decreases? Any problems that might evolve in the future are going to be the result of the long term accumulation of very small changes. So far, the data shows this trend is happening.
     
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  7. Wendy

    Moderator

    Mar 24, 2008
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    Actually what they said is in the last 60 days it has been flat. Taken over 20 years there has been significant change.

    If you try to fudge the numbers you can prove pretty much anything. The trend is real and consistent. If we are lucky the flat trend will continue, but 2 months out 20 years is not what I would call consistent.

    If you happen to live on an island that is mostly inches above sea level it is an alarming trend. There are several other areas in the world where the sea level doesn't have much flex before it is a major problem.

    BTW, I could be wrong, but I believe Wikipedia used the same data.
     
  8. justtrying

    Active Member

    Mar 9, 2011
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    what is even better is that satellite data correlates very well with data collected using the old fashioned way (i.e. sensors).

    Maldives for example? I am curious now about the documentary that has been made ("The Island President"), supposed to address the issue, but with the recent changes... but no politics :D
     
  9. Wendy

    Moderator

    Mar 24, 2008
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    You ever see the Maldive's airport? Flat as a billiard ball. I wonder how much of the rest of the island is like that.

    The Dutch have a bit of land to worry about too as I understand it.
     
  10. Brownout

    Well-Known Member

    Jan 10, 2012
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    Thanks for doing that. I could tell the statement was wrong by just looking at the datea, but this proves it. It's good to find men of science at long last on the internet, especially considering this is, after all, a site devoted mostly to science.
     
  11. MrChips

    Moderator

    Oct 2, 2009
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    One of the problems is by the time you wait for definite undisputable conclusive and compelling data, it would be too late. Rising sea levels is only one of about a dozen indicators that the world has run amok. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to observe and conclude that our current way of living is simply not sustainable.
     
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  12. loosewire

    AAC Fanatic!

    Apr 25, 2008
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    If you had a map of the world with all of the closed water ways,beaches

    lakes,ponds.Our beach along the gold coast are closed too many times.

    The public takes it with stride,they should be yelling at the top of there

    lungs.Every city from the cape to key west,dump there sewage into the

    ocean. The canals,The Venis of America you can,t swim in. How about

    your area.This issue speaks for its self,you have to live with it,I don't

    of a group that does much about it.Sewage,name a group.
     
  13. Brownout

    Well-Known Member

    Jan 10, 2012
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    ^- That's depressing. I always dreamed of spending time there. That should be America's Venis, not America's Pe**s. I've spent time on Florida's west coast, very beautiful and in places, very pristine.
     
  14. loosewire

    AAC Fanatic!

    Apr 25, 2008
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    I love the gulf inlets and fresh fish market on shore side.After the spill

    I have not been there,to the fish market.
     
  15. loosewire

    AAC Fanatic!

    Apr 25, 2008
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    Charlie Rose just spoke of the water issues that transene borders,so that a big voice

    that is talking about the subject. A lot of people listen to his opinions world wide.

    To me one of the greatest broadcasters ever.Showing his age on the morning show.
     
  16. tedanderson

    New Member

    Feb 14, 2012
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    I've always figured that ocean levels were rising as a result of displacement. There is the increase in dumping, pollution, cargo ships, etc.

    All of that stuff in the water would indeed make the ocean rise just a little bit. ;)

    But the whole global warming/environmental crisis varies depending on who you talk to about it. I've seen a couple of stories on the news where they are predicting that this summer, the arctic ice cap on the north pole is going to melt completely before it freezes again for the winter. Meaning that every year, it melts a little bit and then refreezes but this time the rate of melting is going to exceed the rate of refreezing.

    Then other experts say it's going to happen in a few decades.
     
  17. justtrying

    Active Member

    Mar 9, 2011
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    Got the same problem in B.C. Welcome to Victoria, City of Gardens ;)

    Oceans and forests are our most precious resources. Wait until the desalinization plants take firmer hold... Meanwhile water is being used to extract oil - I think humanity has lost all perspective on where to live and how to do it.

    "The stars look so special
    And the snow looks so old
    The frail form is drifting
    Beyond the orc's zone
    Time to question the mountain
    Why pigs can fly
    It's nothing at all"

    Bowie
     
  18. VoodooMojo

    Active Member

    Nov 28, 2009
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  19. joeyd999

    AAC Fanatic!

    Jun 6, 2011
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    So, rising sea levels == man's fault...I am curious as to how you jump to that conclusion.

    Just to be clear, I assume that if sea levels were falling, that would be man's fault as well, yes?

    And what if they were unchanging?

    It did not rain where I live yesterday...man's fault???

    Hopefully, you are aware that sea levels have been much lower at times in the past. Much higher as well. Man's fault?

    The Bonneville Salt Flats were once a great salt lake. It's dry now. Man's fault?

    The Sahara Desert was once covered by ice sheets. Now it's all dry sand. Man's fault?

    Glaciers once stretched all the way to the Florida peninsula. Now we are a tropical paradise. Man's fault?

    Sorry, I don't get it....
     
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  20. justtrying

    Active Member

    Mar 9, 2011
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    Read up on Aral Sea - gone, man's fault. http://orexca.com/aral_sea.shtml

    p.s. the link is fairly random as my knowledge of it stems back to late 1980s when I was growing up in what was then USSR, even they knew what was going on was wrong. I will not go in any further as argument is futile when people reject these concepts.
     
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