Mother of All Bubbles

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by strantor, Jan 8, 2012.

  1. strantor

    Thread Starter AAC Fanatic!

    Oct 3, 2010
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    I've been doing some light reading lately about economics; bubbles, continuous economic growth, etc.
    I've followed this line of thought back to the root of civilization and come to the opinion that our entire way of life is a bubble, and is getting ripe to pop. This is not a new train of thought for me. Thinking back on it, I remembered writing a paper on it in high school. Then I remembered that I saved that paper, as it was one of the only things I really put any effort into in school. I rummaged through the garage and found it in an old box. I now present it for your viewing pleasure, from 8 years ago, the high school version of Strantor's take on life:
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  2. strantor

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    here'sa better chart of world popluation
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  3. spinnaker

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    Why do I get the feeling this thread is going to be locked or deleted? :)
     
  4. strantor

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    I have no idea. does it break the TOS?
     
  5. spinnaker

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    It could be considered political which is band.
     
  6. MrChips

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    Anyone who has studied electronics, from the student to the guru would have been taught the importance of feedback, both positive and negative feedback. Just about every analog circuit, amplifiers, op amps, voltage regulators, switch mode power supplies, phase lock loops, etc., rely on feedback in order to reach a stable operating condition.

    Positive feedback causes unbridled increase, runaway, overshoot and collapse.
    Negative feedback is not about destructive criticism or giving "bad vibes". Negative feedback is the control mechanism that stabilizes both simple and complex systems.

    Every system in nature contains both positive and negative feedback mechanisms. Uncontrolled growth causes overshoot and collapse, just another concept of the bubble that eventually bursts. We see this in every living organism from bacterial growth to plant and animal population.

    We all know this so why am I repeating this here?

    We have failed to incorporate negative feedback in our human created systems. We persistently clamor for greater than 2% increase in economic growth or GDP. Yet we do not realize the consequences. For the mathematically inclined, any positive percentage growth is not an arithmetic series but a geometric series. Any positive percentage growth is an exponential function.

    Our desire for unfettered growth, monetary expansion, urban expansion, increasing global markets, unbridled wanton consumerism, without negative feedback incorporated by design is bound to experience overshoot and collapse.

    Let us apply our knowledge of negative feedback in electronic control systems to understand why our current economic system is not sustainable.
     
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  7. strantor

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    I hope nobody construes it as a political thread. The message is not meant to be of political nature at all. The message is that the invention of antiseptics and the breakthroughs made in the Industrial Revolution contributed to the removal of most natural checks and balances that keeps the population at it's equilibrium level. The population I believe is currently at the crest of an unsustainable bubble ( the term bubble wasn't around at the time I wrote the paper, that I know of), and has no choice but decline by whatever means, whether war or famine, or other. I suppose in some great stretch, the predictions I made in the paper with regards to war & oil may be interpreted as brushing with politics, but they are not the focus of the message, only theoretical possibilities.

    I would urge posters not to take the thread in a political direction, as that is not the intent. Please, let's keep it focused on the population bubble.
     
  8. Wendy

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    Mar 24, 2008
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    I think it is political myself. May I refer you to this post?

    Off Topic is not here for politics

    The thing is, off topic is to discuss various issues. Lately I've been seeing apocalypse, economic collapse, and other scenarios play out of the type that is going to put people off. Because the membership has handled this well we (the moderators) have kept hands off. We do discuss it among ourselves, but not the way you think. Our interests are simple, does this help or hurt AAC?

    It comes down to this, this site is All About Circuits. If a collapse does occur then there isn't much we can do about it. There are many forums out there that are concerned about politics, apocalypse, and the total collapse of civilization. We all have our points of view, but many people refrain expressing their views because they understand we do not flame here. The subjects discussed are begging for it, it is a credit to our members that it has not yet degenerated.

    We moderators are discussing it, it may be we damp these threads down, or it may be they die a natural death (I was hoping for the latter). What is going to be gained by these discussions, other than the very real possibility of hard feeling down the road?
     
  9. MrChips

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    I would like the mods to note that one thread that the op started on economics attracted over 1600 views in a very short time, substantially more than the average thread. Does this not keep members coming back to AAC?
     
  10. strantor

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    These posts are deliberate and there is a very good reason for them. I am 100% convinced that we are in for big changes soon, and it seems everyone around me is asleep at the wheel. What can be gained you ask? How about opening just one person's mind? Letting them see the truth so they can prepare themselves. I am desperately trying to help people. If I enlighten just one person and they prepare themselves, but accrue I hard feelings in the process, it was still worth it. I don't think I've crossed the line anywhere in any of this. I have asked thought provoking questions and I have stated facts. I have been open to other's input, I have steered the topics far from politics, and I haven't evangelized beliefs (things held as truth without evidence); If I'm not mistaken, this post is the first where I have posted my own beliefs.
     
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  11. Wendy

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    Yeah, but we get the numbers either way. Did they come back? Who knows. It doesn't matter though, this is not the "mudd pitt". It is a forum where members can discuss personal issues. Right now those issue do not include religion or politics, this is not going to change. The above has elements of both, but is different enough it has flown through the cracks.

    You will note I have not closed the thread. Depending on the consensus of the moderators it could happen, but we are discussing it first.

    There is no economics thread here, nor is there politics, nor religion. There never will be, because it is not this sites focus. I prefer quality over quantity of people, do the first, the latter will take care of itself, as it already has.
     
  12. Wendy

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    Mar 24, 2008
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    This is not the place for those discussions. Many people have beliefs that I have had to restrict discussion on, it comes with the job. There are other forums.

    A major hallmark of politics is the passion of the beliefs.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2012
  13. loosewire

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    Mr.Mod,let strantor explain the science of the fire ball. What make it
    expand.
     
  14. strantor

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    Yes, and there are lots of smart people here. The perfect place.
    Yes, I believe we can. And it is of the utmost importance that we do do something about it.
    I have no interest of discussing these things on such forums. It would be a complete waste of my time. My mission to enlighten people, and discussing it with like-minded people is not productive.
    I see it as more than a point of view. I routinely discourage people squablling over petty political & moral issues (here and everywhere) as they are a distraction from the real issues at hand. I agree the members here are a mature group, and I have been spared flaming I would recieve elsewhere. I am greatly indebted to the members for their restraint of tongue. I apologize if I have offended anyone.
     
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  15. loosewire

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    2012 will be a tough year for the Forum,not from doom.

    The health and jobs of some members may not be what

    we expected. I expect 2012 to be the year of health concerns.
     
  16. strantor

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    I admire the health awareness you've been raising. It's helped me personally. job well done, and thank you.
     
  17. thatoneguy

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    That sucks, seeing as how it's the last year we have.

    If I ever make a calendar, I'm gonna leave some room at the end so people don't freak out sometime in the future.
     
  18. debe

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    Sep 21, 2010
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    This is afterall the Off Topics part, & i would rather hear the opinions of a few concerned people who are reasonably well behaved in these threads. I may live in Australia but im interested in the average Americans concerns for there future. Rather than from some media hype or some forum full of nutters. This site seems to me to be rather well run & moderated. I would rather see these threads run & if parts do get out of hand then either moderate or shut.
     
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  19. loosewire

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    I,m not freaking out,but I know that sitting too much is not good.
    If you are able to do something with your life to help your self.
    The drug store blood pressure are cheap and having your vitals
    checked by a nurse can not be all that bad. The reason I said
    2012 is because of the predictions going around.
     
  20. Sparky49

    Active Member

    Jul 16, 2011
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    What predictions Loosie?
     
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