What's the best way to conclude global warming?
Global Warming!!
- Thread starter Palani Mehta
- Start date
takao21203
- Joined Apr 28, 2012
- 3,702
stop BBQ (Barbeque)
Too many money hungry politically connected companies
If your asking a methodology question, "How can we confirm or refute a hypothesis concerning global warming", then I would suggest an analysis of climate data like average temperature, precipitation, number and severity of hurricanes and typhoons to gain some insight into whatever trends may be revealed. Establishing a connection between economic activity and the observed data is harder. Coming up with viable solutions to potential problems is harder still, and so it goes.
I have absolutely no idea what you just said
It's the scientific method.
- formulate a hypothesis
- gather data
- confirm or refute the hypothesis
- Interpret the result
Conclude could also mean "what are we to conclude about the evidence presented so far"
It is tempting to conflate 'global warming' and 'ozone destruction', but they are not the same problem.
takao21203
- Joined Apr 28, 2012
- 3,702
And the result is!??
What ozone destruction? The is no 'hole' in the ozone layer. There is a predictable thin spot that comes and goes with the seasons.
There is a seasonal variation that has been regularly and predictably observed and measured since we figured out how to measure the ozone layer back in 1958.
The ozone layer is measured in its density or concentration levels by Dobson Units, DU for short, and the global average for a healthy ozone layer ranges from 250 DU and up whereas the hole is varies between 100 - 200 DU on average not actually zero as certain media and politicians would have you believe.
It would appear that the hole is not a permanent year round event either. It disappears every year for about 8 - 10 months, DU over 250, then comes back, DU under 200, and has been doing so since scientists discovered a way to measure the ozone layer back around 1958. Before then we had no way of measuring and also had no data to show weather its been a normal natural event or otherwise.
To give you both sides of the issue here is the one that we are most familiar with that the media and politicians all dwell on. Fair enough but look closely at the timelines of when that data relates to. September - October and that's it! Nothing mentioned for the other 10 months out of the year every year. Go figure.
Now for the second side to the ozone hole story that we don't see in the media. Apparently for the rest of the year the hole quickly fades and disappears from around mid November all the way to mid August where it's considered non existent every year (DU average over 250).
Have a look for yourself. It comes and goes every year and likely has since the beginning of time.
http://www.theozonehole.com/ozoneholehistory.htm
NASA agrees.
http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Last edited:
takao21203
- Joined Apr 28, 2012
- 3,702
If your asking a methodology question, "How can we confirm or refute a hypothesis concerning global warming", then I would suggest an analysis of climate data like average temperature, precipitation, number and severity of hurricanes and typhoons to gain some insight into whatever trends may be revealed. Establishing a connection between economic activity and the observed data is harder. Coming up with viable solutions to potential problems is harder still, and so it goes.
Reading Ease
A higher score indicates easier readability; scores usually range between 0 and 100.
Readability Formula Score Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease 24 Grade Levels
A grade level (based on the USA education system) is equivalent to the number of years of education a person has had. Scores over 22 should generally be taken to mean graduate level text.
Readability Formula Grade Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level 16 Gunning-Fog Score 18.5 Coleman-Liau Index 15.5 SMOG Index 13.3 Automated Readability Index 16 Average Grade Level 15.9 Text Statistics
Character Count 394 Syllable Count 138 Word Count 74 Sentence Count 3 Characters per Word 5.3 Syllables per Word 1.9 Words per Sentence 24.7
http://aranna.altervista.org/dragonsnest/pic-microcontrollers-tutorial-explanation/
Result: 56.5
The copy scores 56.5 in the Flesch Reading Ease test, which is considered fairly difficult to read. Try to make shorter sentences to improve readability.
Reader's Digest magazine has a readability index of about 65, Time magazine scores about 52, an average 6th grade student's (a 12-year-old) written assignment has a readability test of 6070 (and a reading grade level of 67), and the Harvard Law Review has a general readability score in the low 30s. The highest (easiest) readability score possible is around 120 (e.g. every sentence consisting of only two one-syllable words). The score does not have a theoretical lower bound. It is possible to make the score as low as wanted by arbitrarily including words with many syllables. This sentence, for example, taken as a reading passage unto itself, has a readability score of about thirty. The sentence "The Australian platypus is seemingly a hybrid of a mammal and reptilian creature." scores 24.4 as it has 26 syllables and 13 words. While Amazon calculates the text of Moby-Dick as 57.9,[9] one particularly long sentence about sharks in chapter 64 has a readability score of −146.77.[10]
Reading Ease
A higher score indicates easier readability; scores usually range between 0 and 100.
Readability Formula Score Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease 24 Grade Levels
A grade level (based on the USA education system) is equivalent to the number of years of education a person has had. Scores over 22 should generally be taken to mean graduate level text.
Readability Formula Grade Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level 16 Gunning-Fog Score 18.5 Coleman-Liau Index 15.5 SMOG Index 13.3 Automated Readability Index 16 Average Grade Level 15.9 Text Statistics
Character Count 394 Syllable Count 138 Word Count 74 Sentence Count 3 Characters per Word 5.3 Syllables per Word 1.9 Words per Sentence 24.7
http://aranna.altervista.org/dragonsnest/pic-microcontrollers-tutorial-explanation/
Result: 56.5
The copy scores 56.5 in the Flesch Reading Ease test, which is considered fairly difficult to read. Try to make shorter sentences to improve readability.
Reader's Digest magazine has a readability index of about 65, Time magazine scores about 52, an average 6th grade student's (a 12-year-old) written assignment has a readability test of 6070 (and a reading grade level of 67), and the Harvard Law Review has a general readability score in the low 30s. The highest (easiest) readability score possible is around 120 (e.g. every sentence consisting of only two one-syllable words). The score does not have a theoretical lower bound. It is possible to make the score as low as wanted by arbitrarily including words with many syllables. This sentence, for example, taken as a reading passage unto itself, has a readability score of about thirty. The sentence "The Australian platypus is seemingly a hybrid of a mammal and reptilian creature." scores 24.4 as it has 26 syllables and 13 words. While Amazon calculates the text of Moby-Dick as 57.9,[9] one particularly long sentence about sharks in chapter 64 has a readability score of −146.77.[10]
The strange thing is the sun might be going into a major cooling cycle that might really change our short term climate if warming is slowing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25743806
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23409404
Nothing. I think intelligent people understand "the modern scientific process" real well.
(With apologies to papabravo for embellishing your words)
