My personal opinion on fracking and artificially triggering earthquakes is that having dozens to even hundreds of small less threatening events over a length of time is far better than having them build up into one or two large scale natural events.

That said the biggest problems with us influencing nature in this ways is the overall lack of proper understanding and knowledge that the media and the general public have on this.

To them the majority see that any earthquake is bad and man made or influenced at a much smaller scales and done many times over to reduce the overall potential energy being stored is still bad because its still an earthquake just the same.

In the electrical sense which would you prefer? To be exposed to a KWH worth of electrical energy in the form of a 100 watt light bulb being in a room with out for 10 hours or a single lighting strike expending the same KWH of energy in the same room over a period of a few seconds?

Personally I will take the small exposure over a long time period any day!

I kind of want to agree with you on this one, but can't seem to find any supporting data either way. Here is a chart of quakes in CO. & NM pre and post fracking. A few have been larger than the previous years. I'd probably feel a lot stronger about it if I still lived in San Jose and they were going fracking down that fault.

 

As with any newer and developing technology and the related science there will always be a bit of a learning curve plus a whole lot of initial speculation on what is happening and is the results being seen directly influenced by the actions being done or is it merely coincidence or a bit of both.

Having spent a bit of time on the inside of the fracking industry and having read our industry magazines and articles about such things I have to say I that there is still a large amount grey area inbetween the two sides of did we make it happen and is it just coincidence.

Purposely triggering small earthquakes on active fault lines through fracking or other similar actions of injecting high pressure fluids to purposely reduce the likelihood of having large and destructive events over long intervals Vs having many smaller less significant ones has been studied and tested in a number of places yielding promising evidence that it works.

Unfortunately such research did and still does not get much support from the uneducated media and general public that can't be bothered to think about let alone wrap their heads around the fact that many small earthquake events over large area are far more beneficial to everyones wellbeing than having one or two large scale ones at random.

I for one don't live in a earthquake prone area so its not a big deal to me either way but I do side with the concept of trying to reduce the severity of any natural disaster event by whatever reasonable means can be applied even though there is a chance that purposely triggering smaller events could trigger a large one but then again not doing anything could also allow for a major event to happen just the same.

 

Your lucky you get 1o-20 minutes warning. That does NOTHING for those whose property and life is right UNDER a tornado that drops down in SECONDS. Warning times are relative to your geodetic position with respect to the tornado (witnessed) or potential tornado (radar circulation, not yet witnessed). Even when there are "storm chasers" in the vicinity of the radar's detected location, a tornado may or may not be true. They drop fast.

Maybe. Usually, the RADAR picks up rotation several minutes before it becomes a strong tornado and drops to ground level.

The warning is NOT issued unless there are FACTS ... trained eye witness or LEO, or radar circulation. NOT one warning has been issued without one of those facts have been observed. That is AFTER the fact. How many tornado warnings were issued before those observations? NONE.

There are lots of FACTS. One FACT is for many people, the warnings come before the FACT that they are in iminent danger. Why you keep repeating this specious claim is beyond explainaiton. If you know of a way to observe an event before it happens, please share. We can all make millions on the stock market with this knowledge.

 

Do you know the difference between a severe thunderstorm watch and a severe thunderstorm warning?

from:http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/severeweather/ww.shtml

What is the difference between a Tornado Watch and a Tornado Warning issued by the National Weather Service?

• Tornado Watch: Be Prepared! Tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area. Review and discuss your emergency plans and check supplies and your safe room. Be ready to act quickly if a warning is issued or you suspect a tornado is approaching. Acting early helps to save lives! Watches are issued by the Storm Prediction Center for counties where tornadoes may occur. The watch area is typically large, covering numerous counties or even states.
• Tornado Warning: Take Action! A tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar. There is imminent danger to life and property. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle, or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Warnings are issued by your local forecast office. Warnings typically encompass a much smaller area (around the size of a city or small county) that may be impacted by a tornado identified by a forecaster on Radar or by a trained spotter/law enforcement who is watching the storm.
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch: Be Prepared! Severe thunderstorms are possible in and near the watch area. Stay informed and be ready to act if a severe thunderstorm warning is issued. Watches are issued by the Storm Prediction Center for counties where severe thunderstorms may occur. The watch area is typically large, covering numerous counties or even states.
• Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Take Action! Severe weather has been reported by spotters or indicated by radar. Warnings indicate imminent danger to life and property. Take shelter in a substantial building. Get out of mobile homes that can blow over in high winds. Warnings are issued by your local forecast office. Warnings typically encompass a much smaller area (around the size of a city or county) that may be impacted by an on-going severe thunderstorm.

Again, according to the National Weather Service ... the tornado warning is when one is sited or indicated by weather radar. That means it has been OBSERVED by an observer. The warning is never set before the event ... it is always after the fact. The NWS would not allow tornado predictions in the 1950s because they thought it would cause panic.

Maybe. Usually, the RADAR picks up rotation several minutes before it becomes a strong tornado and drops to ground level.

Again, all rotations do NOT become tornadoes. I pay attention very well when this area is in a watch and there are times when the "hook" is starting to form but the "storm chasers" at that same location, do not observe a tornado ... and the Warning wasn't set. Watches are set by the Storm Prediction Center based on favorable conditions. Warnings are set by the local NWS based on observing real time data from radars or in the field trained observers or Law Enforcement Officers.

I guess if I am wrong, NOAA will have to instruct the all their webmasters to correct the websites. They are my cited sources.

If you are lucky to get more notice than some, be thankful. I personally wouldn't want to be the one where a tornado drops out of the sky within seconds above me. It's a game of chance. The watch becomes more important than the warning in that case. If you don't understand that scenario, that's fine. Pay attention to the time line and the accuracy. I'm thankful when no one is hurt during the watches and warnings.

 

Again, all rotations do NOT become tornadoes.

That's completely wrong. All tornados start with a rotation.

I guess if I am wrong, NOAA will have to instruct the all their webmasters to correct the websites. They are my cited sources

Not so. This comes directly out of one of your cited sources:

"The way a warning is issued is that a meteorologist will monitor the weather by radar and look for particular areas where there could be high impact damage," Kottlowski said. "They will issue a warning and there will be a signature for an existing storm or developing tornado."

I assume you do know the meaning of the word "developing"? It means the even has not fully developed, and is still in the process of becomming what it will become.

 

That's completely wrong. All tornados start with a rotation.

I never said tornados didn't START with a rotation. I said all rotations do not become tornados. There are plenty of developing rotations (radar hook starting to form) that don't end up as tornado. Pay attention the next time your watching the weatherman. The storms come from the west and I can watch it move from county to county ... the storm chasers are nearby doing their thing ... watching and chasing ... slight rotations not becoming tornados ... developing hooks on radar ... not becoming tornados ... and warnings NOT being set. I'm thankful that there are those keeping a watchful eye for the rest of us.

There are rotations that dip down and then retreat back up into the clouds? Are they tornados? Was the watch set in all cases? I doubt it.

 

I said all rotations do not become tornados.

That's still wrong. If even one becomes a tornado, then you cannot claim that all rotations do not become tornados.

There are plenty of developing rotations (radar hook starting to form) that don't end up as tornado.

And pleanty that do.

There are rotations that dip down and then retreat back up into the clouds? Are they tornados? Was the watch set in all cases? I doubt it.

Watches are most likely set. Whether or not warnings are issued are another thing.

 

I assume you do know the meaning of the word "developing"? It means the even has not fully developed, and is still in the process of becomming what it will become.

You would be better served if you used the word "could become" vice "will become". Of course, you should be able to back it up with the percentage that "did become".

 

Watches are most likely set. Whether or not warnings are issued are another thing.

Then your "will become" is incorrect. Why wasn't that rotation qualified for a Warning? Didn't the radar pick up the rotation of a "developing tornado" that according to you it will become a tornado?

Here is a rotation that is NOT a tornado ... a dust devil

 

You would be better served if you used the word "could become" vice "will become". Of course, you should be able to back it up with the percentage that "did become".

Its irrelevent. What is cearly demonstrated here is it has not yet fully developed.

 

You would be better served if you used the word "could become" vice "will become". Of course, you should be able to back it up with the percentage that "did become".

Its irrelevent. What is cearly demonstrated here is it has not yet fully developed.

Then your "will become" is incorrect. Why wasn't that rotation qualified for a Warning? Didn't the radar pick up the rotation of a "developing tornado" that according to you it will become a tornado?

Depends on the strength of the rotation and other factors. Not all rotations will tirgger a warning. There will be other criteria, windspeed, updraft, etc. But in nearly all cases, a watch will be issued, and in most cases, a severe weather warning will be issued. I get lots of these on my phone.

Further, not all rotations that trigger warning become tornaodes. Not all tornadoes touch land. Not all tornadoes that touch land damage homes or other buildings. However, all tornadoes or those developing that might actually fully develop are treated as threats.

 

Each warning and watches have their own criteria. I agree there can be escalations or wholesale jumps from severe weather warnings to the most life threating warnings, skipping the watches in between.

The conditions required for each element, watches and warnings, are defined, published, and defendable. I would not depend on "spoken quotes" because people can be "misquoted" and have been misquoted more than I care to remember. I once told an officer that to be misquoted, you must first be quoted. The conversation revolved around one of my charges "quotes" in a national magazine. I stand by what NWS/NOAA publishes as the criteria for issuing watches and warnings that I cited in post #64.

 

Then your "will become" is incorrect. Why wasn't that rotation qualified for a Warning? Didn't the radar pick up the rotation of a "developing tornado" that according to you it will become a tornado?

Here is a rotation that is NOT a tornado ... a dust devil

We get those, but they don't generate warnigs.
You get these, and they do.

Seems like it only makes sense to be on alert when you live in areas prone to these, be it warning or watch.

 

I would not depend on "spoken quotes

The quote was from the source you cited. Seemed good enough then.


Ok, if the NOAA is the authority, here is what is written in the NOAA domcument "thunderstroms, tornadoes, lightning, A Prepardness Guide. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures/ttl.pdf

The National Weather Service has strategically
located Doppler radars across the country that can
detect air movement toward or away from a radar.
Early detection of increasing rotation aloft within a
thunderstorm can allow life-saving warnings to be
issued before the tornado forms.

No chance of misquoting, since this is a NOAA publication.

 

Seems like it only makes sense to be on alert when you live in areas prone to these, be it warning or watch.

I agree 100 percent. One definitely wants to set their own "watch" when they receive the NWS tornado watch. I know when I drove home from visiting a friend in OK ... driving down US 69 and US75, the wife called and informed me of the watches to the west. I cast a watchful eye to the west every now on that drive to observe.

 

Early detection of increasing rotation aloft within a thunderstorm can allow life-saving warnings to be issued before the tornado forms.

I agree with the statement. You also indicated other "criteria" earlier.

 

from http://www.nws.noaa.gov/glossary/index.php?word=Tornado+Warning
Tornado Warning
This is issued when a tornado is indicated by the WSR-88D radar or sighted by spotters; therefore, people in the affected area should seek safe shelter immediately. They can be issued without a Tornado Watch being already in effect. They are usually issued for a duration of around 30 minutes.

A Tornado Warning is issued by your local National Weather Service office (NWFO). It will include where the tornado was located and what towns will be in its path. If the tornado will affect the nearshore or coastal waters, it will be issued as the combined product--Tornado Warning and Special Marine Warning. If the thunderstorm which is causing the tornado is also producing torrential rains, this warning may also be combined with a Flash Flood Warning. If there is an ampersand (&) symbol at the bottom of the warning, it indicates that the warning was issued as a result of a severe weather report.

After it has been issued, the affected NWFO will followed it up periodically with Severe Weather Statements. These statements will contain updated information on the tornado and they will also let the public know when warning is no longer in effect.

I know it's just a glossary, but it is NWS/NOAA's glossary.

Attached is a printout of a powerpoint presentation. Slide 16 is their recommendation for tornado warnings.

I hope all is safe this tornado season.

 

Very interesting article relevant to this thread:
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...crowave-zaps-could-clean-up-the-oil-business/

 

Very interesting article relevant to this thread:
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...crowave-zaps-could-clean-up-the-oil-business/

I tried that. It didn't work. I took the door off an 1100 watt microwave oven, placed it face down in the back yard, and all I got was a square of dead lawn.

On the other hand, dead grass (instead of live grass) is exactly what I want in my driveway.
After all this rain, I need to get busy with that!
If gasoline comes up, I'll let you know.

 

And what provides the energy for generating all those microwaves? Oil and gas? Is this another over-unity thing ?