Five New Climate Reports

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by BR-549, Sep 15, 2016.

  1. BR-549

    Thread Starter Well-Known Member

    Sep 22, 2013
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  2. dannyf

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    I have long argued that the huge heat mass of the ocean, and from melting ice if phase transition is involved, means that the long run atmospheric temperature wouldn't change unless the ocean temperature changes.

    So modeling atmospheric temperature without modeling the ocean is futile.
     
  3. dannyf

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    What you have is a bunch of guys trying to extrapolate short term data over a very long horizon and insist on their imperfect models to be perfect.

    Kind of like you measure temperature at 6am, 7am and then 8am to conclude that by 9pm everyone would be on fire.

    The only inconvenient truth here is that someone is trying to con you and no one is allowed to say a word about it.
     
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  4. crutschow

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    Mar 14, 2008
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    It's remarkable to me that there still are hard core climate deniers out there considering the significant increase in average earth temperature over the past century.
    This July and August were the hottest months on record.

    Wait, I know, it's a huge conspiracy.
     
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  5. #12

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  6. BR-549

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    Sep 22, 2013
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    The deepest ocean is what....say 30,000 feet. At say....32 degrees F.

    We have drilled down to say.....40,000 feet on land and it was say....350 degrees F.

    Why isn't the ocean transferring huge amounts of heat from the earth? Why doesn't the ocean have a much higher average temp, like land does? Most of the ocean volume temp is close to 32 degrees F. Why does it remain so cool, relative to the warm cradle it resides in?

    Evaporation must be a terrible thing to waste.
     
  7. tcmtech

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    Umm. Not here so I'm suspecting our region doesn't get counted in the statistics. :rolleyes:
     
  8. ronv

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    Nov 12, 2008
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    No solar heat.
    No, it's all good. It makes more rain.
     
  9. ronv

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  10. wayneh

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  11. BR-549

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    Sep 22, 2013
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    "This July and August were the hottest months on record." Even if it's true...so what?

    I have believed that the earth is warming since my geology studies from decades ago. The pass ice age cycles show this.

    The argument was never over climate warming for me. The argument for me is man's activity contributing to it.
    Which is nil. The other scare is the sea level. Do you believe that all the ice that will melt.....will add to sea level?

    Can you imagine a scenario where most of the ice cap has melted, and the ocean level eventually goes down? Can you imagine where with a warmer atmosphere can hold more water and recycle it over the arid areas?

    That's just a physical reaction. I think the real drivers of climate is the biological reactions. This growth will require resources.

    Very hard to predict. Even if we could change it....like say limiting CO2...........that might be the wrong thing to do.
    The biological systems might need that excess CO2 to correct the climate.

    We are much too ignorant recognize a problem, let alone try to repair a perceived one.
     
  12. dannyf

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    There are countless data to point to the flaws in current climate science:

    1. In the past, co2 was in thousands of ppms and yet it cooled down.
    2. Over 90 percent of the greenhouse gas effect on earth is not caused by any of the greenhouse gas, including co2.
    3. The earth had warmed and cooled in the past, with no apparent correlation to co2 in the atmosphere.
    4. Our current temperature is below long run average.
    5. None of the climate models can pass backtrstimg. They are excellent at predicting the future but they cannot predict the past.
    .....

    But none of that matters to the warmers. Anyone having the slightest doubt about global warming is a bigot, anyone wanting to subject their models to scientific test is an evildoer, anyone wanting a cost benefit analysis of their proposals is a murder, ...

    You just cannot have a rational discussion with those guys.

    And they keep wondering why no one trusts them, other than our dear leader, :).
     
  13. nsaspook

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  14. dannyf

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    You cannot win here.

    When it is hot, weather is climate change.

    When it is cold, weather is not climate change.

    They are always right because they have banned any observations contrarybto their theories.

    IE. They are always right and you are always wrong. By definition.
     
  15. ronv

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  16. Kermit2

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    That hot ball of nuclear power plasma we orbit.
    It is classified as a variable yellow dwarf star.
    Variable being the operative word. Look it up, I'll wait(Kermit crosses his arms, tapping foot and glances at watch)
    Ok.
    Long cycles of around 100,000 years and shorter ones of about 22,000 would explain the many many times earth has frozen and thawed. But then we can't even accurately predict rain with 100 percent certainty 72 hours out. We have well documented daily weather data going back a couple hundred years and no one knows what effect the various regions of interstellar dust we pass through in our orbit about the galactic center do to the solar flux reaching us. In short there are hundreds of variables and more than half are not even on this planet, and some probably have yet to be discovered. The truth is we know nothing about what drives the cyclical nature of temperature on the globe over time scales that make humans look like a flash in the pan. Looking at a few data points and "extrapolating" out an answer then shushing up anyone who questions such hubris is pure idiocy. We know nothing about it and pretending to know what is causing it AND how to stop it is pure insanity.
    But don't question global warming because <reasons>

    Bunch of BS, and that is the only fact one CAN be sure of. Warmer or cooler. Yes. Why? Don't even pretend you know the answer. Because you don't. Maybe in a few thousand years time we can make some better guesses.
     
  17. dannyf

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    that's a fallacy where people without a good understanding of math typically fail.

    Predicting weather tomorrow is much harder than predicting climate 10 years from now, for a very simple reason: (hourly) weather is fairly volatile - think of it as a random variable; climate is akin to the mean of that random variable - very stable (due to the law of large numbers).

    While it is difficult for you to predict a particular outcome from a coin flip, you can predict its average with absolute certainty, especially if you have a sufficiently large sample.

    So while I don't have a good view of tomorrow's weather, I can say with high degree of confidence that next year's climate will be similar to this year, or the climate 100 years from now.
     
  18. tcmtech

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    And that means what exactly? o_O

    It was warmer where ever that graph represents therefore it was hot everywhere? :rolleyes:
     
  19. ronv

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    I was questioning your data. I think your thermometer is broken.

    Nope, just average for the planet.

    It must be a frustrating job to collect all that data and then have somebody "cheat you out of it."
    Bet they don't even get any cut from the guys getting all the money to falsify it. :(
     
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  20. tcmtech

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    No. The hottest day we had here this summer was 100 - 103 F. The hottest day there has been in my area in my lifetime was around 108 F and the hottest recorded was in the state was 126 F back in 1936

    http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0001416.html

    BTW the maximum temperature span we have covered 181 Degrees Fahrenheit from the coldest temperature presently recorded to the hottest presently recorded. And extra degree day or two, http://www.degreedays.net/introduction ,a year and a bunch of biased whiners graphs doesn't mean jack shyte to us.

    When we start seeing 126+ F every day for weeks on end we may consider things changed but until then everything is still very much well within the known and obviously survivable upper limits of our systems as they have been for over 3/4 of a century now. :rolleyes:

    In our are the only thing that pushed our annual average up was this. https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/record-february-temperature-records-set Above normal temps in February.

    It pushed the statistical average up for the year without there being a single above average summertime temperature event and is many times the actual sources of the changes in much of the statically higher numbers per season, that for some biased reason, never ever gets discussed in the overall numbers and where they came from or how they were factored. :p

    Simply put a higher statistical average does not indicate a higher peak temperature. It's basic Junior high school math all of us should be able to follow but sadly very few obviously can or do. :(

    So yea, maybe statistically our temperature went up a degree or two as well but at least we know the when and where it came from and it wasn't in the summer here. :oops:
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2016
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