Can banks predict (control) the future?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by strantor, Dec 8, 2011.

  1. strantor

    Thread Starter AAC Fanatic!

    Oct 3, 2010
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    I watched a video called "thrive - what will it take". It is a conspiracy theory video, but not an overly quacky one. Like most conspiracy theory videos, it talks about the Federal Reserve & banks controlling everything. I somewhat agree with that, but not being one to just take the video at it's word, I have started looking into it. I have been looking at interest rates and inflation rates historically. My hypothesis is that if the Federal Reserve & big banks are in control of inflation, then they would never allow themselves to lose money on loans due to inflation surpassing interest. I.E. it would never be possible for you to "lock in" a mortgage interest rate that would result in the bank receiving less REAL MONEY (inflation for adjusted) on a year to year basis than what they loaned you. I researched the average price of a home 30 years ago in 1981: 87,000$. the interest rate in '81 was 15.75%; it dropped to 7.5% in 1986 so assumedly any homeowner would have refinanced, so I just used 7.5% to make the math less complicated. assume you took out a 30 year loan @ 7.5% in 1981 and made 608$/mo (7300$/yr) payments and payed it off this year:
    Code ( (Unknown Language)):
    1. interest    7.50%      
    2. yearly payment:         7299.8 
    3. loan amount:        87000  
    4.            
    5. year        inflation rate  real money given to bank
    6. 1981        10.35%          $6,544
    7. 1982        6.16%           $6,141
    8. 1983        3.22%           $5,943
    9. 1984        4.30%           $5,688
    10. 1985        3.55%           $5,486
    11. 1986        1.91%           $5,381
    12. 1987        3.66%           $5,184
    13. 1988        4.08%           $4,973
    14. 1989        4.83%           $4,732
    15. 1990        5.39%           $4,477
    16. 1991        4.25%           $4,287
    17. 1992        3.03%           $4,157
    18. 1993        2.96%           $4,034
    19. 1994        2.61%           $3,929
    20. 1995        2.81%           $3,818
    21. 1996        2.93%           $3,707
    22. 1997        2.34%           $3,620
    23. 1998        1.55%           $3,564
    24. 1999        2.19%           $3,486
    25. 2000        3.38%           $3,368
    26. 2001        2.83%           $3,273
    27. 2002        1.59%           $3,221
    28. 2003        2.27%           $3,147
    29. 2004        2.68%           $3,063
    30. 2005        3.39%           $2,959
    31. 2006        3.24%           $2,863
    32. 2007        2.85%           $2,782
    33. 2008        3.85%           $2,675
    34. 2009        -0.34%          $2,684
    35. 2010        1.64%           $2,640
    36.            
    37. total real money given to bank:         $121,826
    38.  
    Now watch what happens when I change the interest rate from 7.5% to today's interest rate of 4%:
    Code ( (Unknown Language)):
    1.  
    2. interest    4.00%          
    3. yearly payment:         4984       
    4. loan amount:        87000      
    5.                
    6. year        inflation rate      real money given to bank
    7. 1981        10.35%      $4,468
    8. 1982        6.16%       $4,193
    9. 1983        3.22%       $4,058
    10. 1984        4.30%       $3,883
    11. 1985        3.55%       $3,746
    12. 1986        1.91%       $3,674
    13. 1987        3.66%       $3,540
    14. 1988        4.08%       $3,395
    15. 1989        4.83%       $3,231
    16. 1990        5.39%       $3,057
    17. 1991        4.25%       $2,927
    18. 1992        3.03%       $2,838
    19. 1993        2.96%       $2,754
    20. 1994        2.61%       $2,682
    21. 1995        2.81%       $2,607
    22. 1996        2.93%       $2,531
    23. 1997        2.34%       $2,471
    24. 1998        1.55%       $2,433
    25. 1999        2.19%       $2,380
    26. 2000        3.38%       $2,299
    27. 2001        2.83%       $2,234
    28. 2002        1.59%       $2,199
    29. 2003        2.27%       $2,149
    30. 2004        2.68%       $2,091
    31. 2005        3.39%       $2,020
    32. 2006        3.24%       $1,955
    33. 2007        2.85%       $1,899
    34. 2008        3.85%       $1,826
    35. 2009        -0.34%      $1,832
    36. 2010        1.64%       $1,802
    37.                
    38. total real money given to bank:             $83,178
    39.  
    40.  
    so, if in 1981, if the bank had given you a loan at 4%, they would have lost thousands of dollars. So in order for them to be giving loans at 4% right now, they must know that inflation from now until 2041 will be less than it was from 1981 until now. IMO Banks wouldn't make a gamble with their profits like that unless they knew the odds. and, IMO, there's no possible way they could know the odds, unless they are the ones creating the odds.
    what do you think?
     
  2. thatoneguy

    AAC Fanatic!

    Feb 19, 2009
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    Instead of posting your inflation as percentage per year, post inflation as percentage since loan was taken out. (NO, You cannot add percentages!)

    Yes, the bank wins, even on a fixed 2% loan for 20 years, they win big.
     
  3. jimkeith

    Active Member

    Oct 26, 2011
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    Hi strandtor,
    Very nteresting view of mortgage earnings, but I believe that the picture is far larger than we can imagine--they have made it so apparently complex that few can understand (not even branch bank presidents)--then you have the issues of derivatives and bailouts--downright fraud!

    You must read the book "The Creature from Jekyll Island" by Edward Griffin--I have heard him speak--wow is he articulate
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu_VqX6J93k

    First the money is loaned into existence so it is all based upon debt rather than tangible assets such as silver and gold--then the bank collects interest from the debtor(s)--for them, it is WIN-WIN.

    Their ultimate goal is to own the world and they are very close to achieving just that.

    The banksters that are really running the show are not the so-called 1%, but the 0.0001% or so (4 orders of magnitude off)--they are literally trillionaires--they own the politicians, the police and the media and have a fascist relationship with virtually all governments. They simply cannot stand any country that is not hopelessly in debt--like Libya...

    Regarding most mortgages, they will eventually foreclose on them in the impending depression, so it does not really matter how much they are making at this point.

    Just check out this short, but interesting clip by Harlem Pastor James Manning--I love him--he tells it like it is--very well educated and a real thinker.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydUTMggbXn4
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66C7YwOoZiE

    There is so much more to say about all this, but it is past my bedtime.

    For your next exercise, plot the value of gold and silver over the same time period--look at the 5year graph in this website:
    http://www.goldprices.com/
     
  4. thatoneguy

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    Feb 19, 2009
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    Then you have the flip side of the coin, crux, nexus, root issue, whatever you want to call it: Community Reinvestment Act of 1974, which was expanded upon in the 90's. Banks were threatened with ejection from the FDIC for not listening to their .gov advisers.

    This new system forced banks to give mortgages to people who knew they could not afford them. They worked out 30 year and longer loan, allowing them to become 2 years behind in any payment, let alone full payment, before taking any action (taking action would be "racism").

    The add ons to the CRA in the mid 90's led to the major housing boom during that period, but the house of cards all fell down in 2006 or so, even after repeated warnings from many senators and congressmen from both parties. They kept ignoring the warnings for 8 to 10 years, thinking "it won't crash in my term", until it crashed. Then they all got voted out, and the new congress doesn't know what to do. We are in a recession, but now the requirements for a mortgage are more strict than they were before the CRA, when they should be lax to get OUT of the recession. Nobody has ever been employed by a poor man.

    Major Financial institutions, along with GM and Chrysler, are still running because the gov keeps subsidizing them. For some reason, the free market system is being messed with so "it cannot fail", at the expense of thousands of jobs and inflation. This is to keep aloft the "scratch each other's back" version of free market we have today, instead of a True Free Market, which we had up until 1930, and even crippled after that, it served us well through the 90's without needing trillions added so retirement funds wouldn't vanish into mist.

    The end is near. I don't know what the solution is, other than everybody actually working, learning a trade, etc. The government should NEVER employ over 50% of the population, currently, the US is 2% over that, with the other 48% split between no-taxes/unemployed (25%), "big money" (%5) and the middle class 18%) . There's a term for that condition, and not a positive one, but it's where we are at, roughly 25% of Americans paying 100% of the other 80% of Americans salaries/ unemployment/pension/Social Security, or disability.

    I know how we got here, now it is just a matter of getting out without the uproar that was seen in Egypt or Greece.

    This post is apolitical. It speaks of issues which politics have caused, but I am not blaming either party for the current condition, except for the one very well deserved finger point at an act that both houses passed and a president signed because "it sounded good at the time". :(
     
  5. strantor

    Thread Starter AAC Fanatic!

    Oct 3, 2010
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    the inflation dollar amount of real money each year that I posted was the dollar amount of real money from the previous year, minus the inflation from the current year. I did it this way, because in terms of real money, I didn't think that multiplying by the total # of dollars paid by the total inflation rate at the end of the loan would give an accurate representation of the value of money received by the bank through the life of the loan.
    the cumulative inflation from DEC '81 to DEC '10 is 133%
    The calculated total for an $87K loan @ 7.5% is $218,993
    The calculated total for an $87K loan @ 4.0% is $149,526
    I can't remember how I calculated the $ - inflation last night; I was on a different computer
    The video I watched went into great detail about this, and I get it. Bank creates money out of thin air, then uses that money to create more money, and on and on. bank gets richer, everybody else goes further into debt; I get that & I believe it. What this exercise seeks to confirm or deny is your second statement that I qouted; If they are in control, or seeking control. I thought that by proving that they can predict the future of inflation by pricing loans at a rate that will never be exceeded by inflation, then that would prove they are in control. I guess its a pointless exercise though, considering the actual real money they make on the loan interest is small compared to the profits they gain from materializing money out of thin air. They could probably charge 0% interest from now on, and still rake in massive profits.
     
  6. MrChips

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    Oct 2, 2009
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    Strantor, once again let us forget the word "conspiracy". There is too much baggage carried around with that word. Let's talk "reality". If you would really like to learn more about money, there are many websites and info available. Here are some that I highly recommend:


    Money as Debt - 50min video

    The Money Masters - 3hr 30min video

    The Money Fix - 1h 19m video

    The Crash Course - series of 20 videos


    I believe that it is important that every person should have an understanding of how money is created.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2011
  7. strantor

    Thread Starter AAC Fanatic!

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    yes I hate to tag a post with that word, but I feel that if I don't give some kind of kind of disclaimer then as soon as someone gets 10min into the video they will stop watching and come back with gripes about the smell of "conspiracy". The video I referenced was very mild as far as "conspiracy" goes, but they did touch on many things that people consider "conspiracy theories". If one had watched a hardcore conspircay theory video like "zeitgheist" and then the Thrive video, they would see some parallels and might be put off by it.

    All that being said, I agree with most things in the Thrive video and I think it is good for people to watch. Even if you don't believe what you see. The video has a positive message "this is what you can do about it" vise conspiracy theory videos which only fearmonger "the sky is falling"

    EDIT: I will watch those videos this evening. thanks for the links
     
  8. MrChips

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    "Conspiracy" theories are abundant:

    JFK assassination
    MLK assassination
    9/11
    Global Warming

    just to list a few.

    An intelligent rational thinking person would not be put off by any such theories but would in fact be interested in forming his/her own opinion which would require looking at both sides of the debate. The problem is most people have already made up their minds and are blinded by their own conditioning and prejudice.
     
  9. strantor

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    Right, which is what I'm doing. But, like you said, my experience has taught me that not everybody does, and that in order to get the most useful information out of those who don't, you need to at least appear to somewhat align with their way of thinking. otherwise all you get is an arguement in which you are attacked on a whole myriad of points which the other party assumes that you represent, which aren't even part of the discussion.
    This is why I tread softly when whispers of conspiracy are in the air. Those who have their minds made up throw up a brick wall, and anything they could have contributed to the discussion are now lost.
     
  10. jimkeith

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    Oct 26, 2011
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    In my thinking, the official stories for the above including Oklahoma City and flight 800 are the conspiracies--they have so many illogical loose ends that a rational individual should have serious questions...
     
  11. maxpower097

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    Feb 20, 2009
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    Sure they can. They've now proven if they run out of money they can just take it from the tax payers. So our financial system has evolved into steal as much as you can today and let our kids try to pay it back.
     
  12. thatoneguy

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    You are missing a VERY important part. Insurance companies are at least 40% complicit in this. Insurance, when made mandatory, such as for automobile windshields, makes the price of a windshield go from $120 installed to $1100 installed. Same with Healthcare, so when somebody wants to demand "everybody gets insurance", it is NOT out of kindness or care for the people, it is to get more money. Have you ever seen a private hospital NOT adding on or adding new buildings?

    Banks and insurance agencies are often one in the same, or owned by the same parent company if you look into it enough.

    Yes, we are all pawns.
     
  13. maxpower097

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    JFK isn't a conspiracy theory anymore. Its been verified the Lousianna Mafia and the Florida Mafia joined forced and had him killed because of the pressure his brother was putting on the Lousianna Mafia. It was gonna happen in Tampa but Santo Trafficante Sr. stopped it from happening here. Next stop was New Orleans which that wasn't doable because the mob boss ordering the hit controlled this territory. The 3rd stop was texas and we all know the story from there. Its been accepted this was what happened my most historians and even Discovery channel.
    Heres a quick snippet and theres tons more.
    http://www.maryferrell.org/wiki/index.php/Santos_Trafficante_-_It_Should_Have_Been_Bobby
     
  14. Wendy

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    Mar 24, 2008
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    I think I strongly disagree with the above, but I am not willing to argue the case.

    All people who believe in conspiracy theories think the case has been proved without a doubt, while the rest of us look on. If it is truly proven then it will make the news, not a few videos.
     
  15. jimkeith

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    Oct 26, 2011
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    @Bill, So you believe that the media is not controlled, it is not real unless it appears on the mainstream news, and the Gov't tells the truth--is that correct?

    Try the alternative media--How about Alex Jones? http://www.infowars.com/

    A large amount of stuff in the mainstream media is scripted propaganda.
    The main difference between the old USSR and the present USA is that the unlike us, the Russians did not believe the propaganda...
     
  16. MrChips

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  17. thatoneguy

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    I also disagree with conspiracy theories, the same group tends to believe in free energy, and since they are either unaware of some information, or cannot understand it, they come up with their own story instead.

    That's not to say there haven't been coverups that got exposed, such as the recent one of the ATF supplying guns to Mexico, and two US Border Patrol agents being killed by those exact same guns.
     
  18. maxpower097

    Well-Known Member

    Feb 20, 2009
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    I'm getting my info from books, biography channel. Watch anything on the Louisianna Mob or Santo Trafficante and you'll hear all about it. Plus I'm related to these jack arses. And a lil more info for those that don't know. Once Santo died a while back the Gambino's of NY merged with the Trafficante's. Thats why John Gotti Jr has been arrested here in Tampa running a protection racket for valets. But much like his pappa the charges just slid off his back onto the floor. Oh and the movie donnie brosco, the FL part is completely true. The old man they meet in the boat is Santo. The Kings Court was actually right outside Tampa in Polk County. And the hotel they stayed in was the Tahitian Inn. And to prove its still mob run heres a nice news article about it.
    http://www.google.com/search?source...US327&q=tahitian+inn+mafia&btnG=Google+Search
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2011
  19. Wendy

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    Mar 24, 2008
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    There is another cover up that has recently come to light. Body parts of deceased service people (read this as the remains of our troops that did not leave a good looking corpse) have been incinerated (no foul there) and then dumped into a land fill (which is vile). It appears it was discontinued in 2008, but the people involved did not want this to come out (imagine that!).

    http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2...orce-dumped-remains-of-274-troops-in-landfill

    I am sure there is more than a little media hype here, but the basic story is disturbing.

    There is an old phrase that covers most cases of coverup, Never attribute to malice where stupidity will suffice.

    Side Note: Beenthere was an expert at keeping his private feelings private. I wish I could do that, but I am not wired for it. Now and then I manage, but for me it is hard. I wasn't going to forward the above link, for example, because could see this going political.

    Please do not make this political, here or elsewhere. So far we (I include myself) have walked the line on the right side. Hopefully we can maintain.
     
  20. Wendy

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    Mar 24, 2008
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    I have seen so many conspiracy theories on JFK it doesn't register. The subject does matter anymore.

    As far as new evidence, I suspect it will come out eventually into the mainstream. This does not make it any more true than the last 50 years of garbage that has been used to sell books and videos.

    I do not buy into conspiracy theories. I do not buy free energy, nor that the oil companies killed Stan Meyer, or oil companies have been massively suppressing new technologies, or the government brought down the twin tower or a missile hit the pentagon, nor any other people pushing their agenda.

    It may be true or not, it does not matter to me. You can pick what you choose to believe, just as I will. A single news story or video has no effect on me 20 years after the fact.
     
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