Another nuclear test by NK?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by cmartinez, Jan 5, 2016.

  1. cmartinez

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  2. Papabravo

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    Would any of the nastier Mexican cartels do it if they got paid enough?
     
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  3. cmartinez

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    I seriously doubt they'd be interested in that sort of thing... bad as they are (with a capital "B") they're motivated by profit, and to some degree, power. But even the purpose of that power is more profit through kidnapping and extortion.
    On the other hand, imagine this thing falling in the hands of ISIS, for instance. I'm certain they wouldn't think it twice about using it on their enemies, and the friends living among their enemies. Their religious motivations are entirely different, and far more dangerous, since they're willing to kill themselves in order to kill their enemy.

    The historical rule of thumb is that one large war or another is being always fought at some corner of the earth. Here in North American territory we've had a glorious spell of piece that has lasted for more than a century and a half now. Are better or worse times coming our way? We're just gonna have to pray and see.
     
  4. GopherT

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    I thought the US was still fighting the war Ricard Nixon declared on everything south of the Rio Grande in 1971.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_Drugs

    It depends. There is one person who believes Mexico will pay him to build a wall, a beautiful wall, a wall that will...
     
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  5. cmartinez

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    Keep the enemies out? or the enemies in?

    I have no problem discussing immigration problems and crime in my own country. It affects us both, and I know you're all educated people and not prone to BS. But my aim with this thread was to discuss the nuclear threat posed by unstable nations.
     
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  6. GopherT

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  7. cmartinez

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    Gosh... how did they manage to sync the explosion with naturally occurring seismic activity?

    Seriously now. NK is a starving nation, with an almost non-existent industry whose sole purpose is the perpetuation of a regime governed by people that consider themselves almost deities. And China's (so far) unwavering support is the only thing keeping it from collapsing.
    I give it less than 50 years (20 years, more likely) before a mayor change happens... let's just hope it's not a catastrophic one.
     
  8. cmartinez

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    Oh my... Emoji Smiley-79.png MY COVER'S BEEN BLOWN!... now the NSA, CIA, FBI, CBS and HEB are going to know that english is not my birth language!! I'm gonna get deported back to.... wait a minute, I'm already here! :p:D

    Major it is then, thank you. I stand corrected... and btw, I'm going to leave my previous typo as it is, for posterity's (and humor's) sake.
     
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  9. cmartinez

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  10. Papabravo

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    Preemption seems unlikely, so a miscalculation on their part seems like the minimal pretext for their elimination as a viable threat. It seems like other Asian countries will be in the line of fire before the Western Hemisphere.
     
  11. JoeJester

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    That was quick. It seems like its only been about 20 years since There was a technology transfer to NK that people had predicted would advance NK's nuclear program.

    And here we are today.
     
  12. wayneh

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    I don't quite understand the long run strategy of NK. Of course it's not about NK, it's the ruling family. Like all despots, they want to maintain and grow their personal power and status. That I get. But do they really think that developing nukes will further that goal?

    They want us to leave the region so that they can overrun and steal all the wealth of South Korea. Is that it - could they possibly be satisfied with that? Or maybe they hope to extract extortion money from everyone they can threaten, like a schoolyard bully taking lunch money.

    Is it all for show, to impress the locals and reinforce their status?

    Of all the things they could spend money on, it seems odd that nukes are their highest priority.
     
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  13. JohnInTX

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  14. Sinus23

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    I was reading the article and it made good sense here and there but then I read that paragraph and I'm not sure what the author is on about.

    So if I understand this correctly they want to arm themselves against possible threats and by doing so, they might attack someone else. And all this is somehow frowned upon by the civilized society.;)
     
  15. cmartinez

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    We must keep in mind that the ruling family in NK (and it is a family, and therefore, a Dynasty by definition) is comprised of despots whose only goal is to stay in power at any cost. Their nuclear program gives them a feeling of security against not only their enemies, but also their friends. I think that their aim is to arm themselves to such an extent so as to be able to keep on receiving Chinese aid through extortion, if the need ever arises.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2016
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  16. Sinus23

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    Somewhat probable since they are already pissing China off.
     
  17. Glenn Holland

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    I began my career in electronics working in seismology (that's a 1960s vintage seismograph recorder in my avatar), so here's my take.

    Nuclear (and conventional) explosions have a different seismic signature than earthquakes so hiding a nuclear test would be difficult. The Air Force operated a seismic monitoring program called "VELA" which was intended to track nuclear testing. In fact, most of the seismographic stations installed throughout the U.S. in the 1960s were part of the VELA program or another world wide program organized by the United Nations.

    There is now an extensive network of stations operating in the world and also the filtering techniques for seismic events has become rather sophisticated. So it's impossible for anyone to do any nuclear testing without being able to trace the stink.
     
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  18. nsaspook

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  19. BR-549

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    "The efficiency of early fission weapons was relatively low: only 1.4% of the highly enriched uranium in the core of the “Little Boy” device dropped on Hiroshima actually underwent fission. Boosting can increase this efficiency drastically without a significant penalty in terms of weight, making it an attractive design option for smaller missile systems. Given North Korea’s interest in this arena, it is possible that a boosted fission weapon was the aim of the most recent test."

    That's pretty interesting.
     
  20. Glenn Holland

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    My grandfather owned a store in Indian Springs and my mother and aunt both worked at the Nevada Test Site (Mercury Labs) in the 1950s.

    They had a secret clearance and were not allowed to discuss anything that went on in the place. However, the details of bomb making were well known by outsiders and one guy who came into my grandfather's store seemed to be willing to talk about the advantages and disadvantages of the fission process and here's his explanation.

    Fission works best at low temperatures (in the lower 1000s of degrees (F) when the velocity of the neutrons is equal to the ambient temperature. This is the so called "moderating" process and it is done by surrounding the fissionable material with graphite. These "thermalized" neutrons have the best chance of creating a critical or supercritical reaction. However once the temperature starts to rise from 1000s of degrees to hundreds of 1000s, then to up in the millions, the graphite melts and vaporizes so the neutrons are no longer moderated.

    At millions of degrees, moderation becomes negligible and the reaction eventually stalls. Therefore attempting to build a fission bomb above a certain energy output becomes a case of diminishing returns. However a fusion bomb works very well at high temperatures and there's no limit on the energy output. In 1962, the Soviet Union detonated the largest fusion bomb ever built called Big Ivan which had an energy yield of 50 Megatons.
     
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